As we considered different methods of gauging how cities have performed economically, we decided to look not at just the last year of the previous decade or the whole decade itself — but a mixture of both time frames.
This post details net job growth in the 100 most populous metro areas from a) 2001 to 2010 and from b) 2009 to 2010. This allowed us to isolate how cities fared in a key post-recession year and for a much longer period.
After running the numbers using EMSI’s first quarter 2011 dataset, we’ve put the largest 100 metros into four categories:
- Hot — These select cities performed well from 2001 to 2010 overall, and they saw net job growth from 2009 to 2010.
- Heating Up — This is an even more select group that struggled as a whole through the decade but are now on the uptick and adding jobs.
- Cooling Down — This group saw job growth in the early part of the decade but lost jobs in the last year (2009 to 2010).
- Cold — These cities, many of which sit in the Rust Belt, have shown net job loss in the decade — and from 2009 to 2010.
HOT
This list is headlined by four Texas metro areas and the District of Columbia in the top five. These cities performed strongly throughout the 2000s, and haven’t shown signs of decline at the aggregate level. Notice the heavy Southern flavor in this group, which fits in line with the latest Census results regarding the fastest-rising population growth from 2000-2010.
In terms of late-arriving job growth for the decade, Boston is on top with 40% of its total growth coming from 2009 to 2010 (that percentage is shown in the far right-hand column).
| City | 2001 Jobs | 2009 Jobs | 2010 Jobs | 2001-2010 Change | 2009-10 Change | % of Total Change from '09-10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 3,406,627 | 3,846,881 | 3,873,746 | 467,119 | 26,865 | 6% |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 3,386,112 | 3,767,963 | 3,800,378 | 414,266 | 32,415 | 8% |
| Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX | 848,544 | 1,026,090 | 1,042,049 | 193,505 | 15,959 | 8% |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 976,702 | 1,152,851 | 1,155,068 | 178,366 | 2,217 | 1% |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | 216,473 | 295,212 | 300,877 | 84,404 | 5,665 | 7% |
| Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC | 323,775 | 382,762 | 386,890 | 63,115 | 4,128 | 7% |
| Oklahoma City, OK | 701,442 | 760,102 | 762,377 | 60,935 | 2,275 | 4% |
| El Paso, TX | 314,261 | 367,440 | 368,461 | 54,200 | 1,021 | 2% |
| Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | 948,429 | 998,531 | 999,247 | 50,818 | 716 | 1% |
| Provo-Orem, UT | 204,078 | 254,028 | 254,865 | 50,787 | 837 | 2% |
| Honolulu, HI | 557,431 | 606,170 | 607,284 | 49,853 | 1,114 | 2% |
| Columbia, SC | 413,621 | 455,057 | 456,011 | 42,390 | 954 | 2% |
| Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 227,975 | 269,557 | 270,252 | 42,277 | 695 | 2% |
| Knoxville, TN | 391,655 | 431,389 | 432,010 | 40,355 | 621 | 2% |
| Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH | 3,018,597 | 3,037,422 | 3,050,090 | 31,493 | 12,668 | 40% |
| Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | 269,694 | 293,675 | 295,648 | 25,954 | 1,973 | 8% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 1,382,237 | 1,399,432 | 1,402,872 | 20,635 | 3,440 | 17% |
| Chattanooga, TN-GA | 296,129 | 298,468 | 299,068 | 2,939 | 600 | 20% |
HEATING UP
Only four cities came up as having experienced decline from 2001 to 2009, and growth from 2009 to 2010. The group is led by New Orleans, which added the most new jobs from 2009 to 2010. Worcester, Massachusetts and Springfield, Massachusetts saw only slight upticks and pretty stagnant job numbers for the decade altogether, while Grand Rapids, Michigan had an encouraging last year of the 2000s despite losing 12,653 jobs overall.
| City | 2001 Jobs | 2009 Jobs | 2010 Jobs | 2001-2010 Change | 2009-10 Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Springfield, MA | 370,542 | 369,462 | 370,125 | -417 | 663 |
| Worcester, MA | 407,157 | 406,376 | 406,687 | -470 | 311 |
| Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI | 468,338 | 454,954 | 455,685 | -12,653 | 731 |
| New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA | 752,871 | 689,544 | 692,504 | -60,367 | 2,960 |
COOLING DOWN
If there’s one category that fits most of the country, this is it.
The third set of cities performed well in the first part of the decade but shifted toward the wrong direction from 2009 to 2010. And it’s by far the largest list. Sixty cities fall into this category, led by some of the nation’s largest metros — Houston, New York, Phoenix, Miami, and Atlanta.
| City | 2001 Jobs | 2009 Jobs | 2010 Jobs | 2001-2010 Change | 2009-10 Change | % of Total Change from '09-10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX | 2,833,546 | 3,362,619 | 3,351,908 | 518,362 | (10,711) | -2% |
| New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA | 10,070,635 | 10,655,001 | 10,587,290 | 516,655 | (67,711) | -13% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ | 1,927,002 | 2,186,350 | 2,169,290 | 242,288 | (17,060) | -7% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | 2,763,094 | 3,009,289 | 2,986,279 | 223,185 | (23,010) | -10% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA | 2,768,423 | 3,022,042 | 2,977,404 | 208,981 | (44,638) | -21% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 1,407,421 | 1,631,278 | 1,592,992 | 185,571 | (38,286) | -21% |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 1,061,143 | 1,232,214 | 1,226,731 | 165,588 | (5,483) | -3% |
| Las Vegas-Paradise, NV | 863,685 | 1,060,970 | 1,026,801 | 163,116 | (34,169) | -21% |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 2,019,643 | 2,177,269 | 2,163,386 | 143,743 | (13,883) | -10% |
| Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC | 929,266 | 1,045,394 | 1,043,143 | 113,877 | (2,251) | -2% |
| Baltimore-Towson, MD | 1,532,879 | 1,644,297 | 1,643,280 | 110,401 | (1,017) | -1% |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 536,695 | 643,863 | 641,390 | 104,695 | (2,473) | -2% |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 3,237,799 | 3,362,946 | 3,337,691 | 99,892 | (25,255) | -25% |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 699,155 | 794,672 | 789,777 | 90,622 | (4,895) | -5% |
| San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA | 1,722,450 | 1,814,829 | 1,802,811 | 80,361 | (12,018) | -15% |
| Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | 900,532 | 977,780 | 970,394 | 69,862 | (7,386) | -11% |
| Baton Rouge, LA | 409,390 | 475,641 | 473,373 | 63,983 | (2,268) | -4% |
| Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO | 1,532,503 | 1,617,393 | 1,595,061 | 62,558 | (22,332) | -36% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 709,867 | 776,094 | 772,350 | 62,483 | (3,744) | -6% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 2,106,911 | 2,172,291 | 2,167,953 | 61,042 | (4,338) | -7% |
| Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 1,223,500 | 1,302,532 | 1,283,681 | 60,181 | (18,851) | -31% |
| Tucson, AZ | 436,165 | 489,701 | 484,992 | 48,827 | (4,709) | -10% |
| Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA | 1,088,573 | 1,164,707 | 1,136,024 | 47,451 | (28,683) | -60% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 225,908 | 275,459 | 271,983 | 46,075 | (3,476) | -8% |
| Indianapolis-Carmel, IN | 1,029,729 | 1,075,376 | 1,071,274 | 41,545 | (4,102) | -10% |
| Boise City-Nampa, ID | 310,583 | 350,991 | 344,760 | 34,177 | (6,231) | -18% |
| Albuquerque, NM | 445,880 | 486,783 | 479,361 | 33,481 | (7,422) | -22% |
| Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 357,656 | 394,333 | 390,785 | 33,129 | (3,548) | -11% |
| Kansas City, MO-KS | 1,217,920 | 1,270,464 | 1,248,872 | 30,952 | (21,592) | -70% |
| Madison, WI | 390,194 | 424,876 | 420,720 | 30,526 | (4,156) | -14% |
| Bakersfield-Delano, CA | 312,878 | 347,404 | 343,307 | 30,429 | (4,097) | -13% |
| Richmond, VA | 710,025 | 748,044 | 739,441 | 29,416 | (8,603) | -29% |
| Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA | 531,915 | 564,073 | 560,267 | 28,352 | (3,806) | -13% |
| Jackson, MS | 304,805 | 329,496 | 329,198 | 24,393 | (298) | -1% |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | 563,397 | 591,596 | 587,358 | 23,961 | (4,238) | -18% |
| Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC | 351,517 | 377,066 | 375,476 | 23,959 | (1,590) | -7% |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | 391,457 | 415,447 | 414,664 | 23,207 | (783) | -3% |
| Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY | 304,530 | 330,652 | 327,466 | 22,936 | (3,186) | -14% |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 230,571 | 255,403 | 252,948 | 22,377 | (2,455) | -11% |
| Colorado Springs, CO | 350,626 | 380,080 | 372,953 | 22,327 | (7,127) | -32% |
| Tulsa, OK | 536,078 | 563,549 | 558,109 | 22,031 | (5,440) | -25% |
| Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR | 392,453 | 421,302 | 413,960 | 21,507 | (7,342) | -34% |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | 238,323 | 262,634 | 259,322 | 20,999 | (3,312) | -16% |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | 756,139 | 782,143 | 776,706 | 20,567 | (5,437) | -26% |
| Fresno, CA | 403,647 | 430,712 | 423,403 | 19,756 | (7,309) | -37% |
| Columbus, OH | 1,108,612 | 1,139,136 | 1,125,935 | 17,323 | (13,201) | -76% |
| New Haven-Milford, CT | 462,689 | 478,593 | 476,967 | 14,278 | (1,626) | -11% |
| Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | 375,330 | 390,924 | 386,873 | 11,543 | (4,051) | -35% |
| Birmingham-Hoover, AL | 616,584 | 641,536 | 627,081 | 10,497 | (14,455) | -138% |
| Lancaster, PA | 284,104 | 295,499 | 294,092 | 9,988 | (1,407) | -14% |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 400,766 | 415,838 | 410,514 | 9,748 | (5,324) | -55% |
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 521,209 | 534,893 | 530,035 | 8,826 | (4,858) | -55% |
| Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | 727,503 | 741,867 | 736,241 | 8,738 | (5,626) | -64% |
| Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN | 1,220,014 | 1,238,582 | 1,228,716 | 8,702 | (9,866) | -113% |
| Stockton, CA | 262,252 | 273,575 | 269,543 | 7,291 | (4,032) | -55% |
| Wichita, KS | 368,655 | 380,519 | 373,395 | 4,740 | (7,124) | -150% |
| Memphis, TN-MS-AR | 754,530 | 774,354 | 759,268 | 4,738 | (15,086) | -318% |
| Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA | 304,399 | 308,713 | 308,083 | 3,684 | (630) | -17% |
| Syracuse, NY | 372,559 | 376,458 | 375,492 | 2,933 | (966) | -33% |
| Modesto, CA | 208,439 | 211,885 | 209,700 | 1,261 | (2,185) | -173% |
COLD
The last set of cities have struggled to generate job growth throughout the decade — whether you look at the 2001 to 2009 time frame or 2009 to 2010. Detroit lost the most jobs (342,000), and 12% of those came in the last year of the decade. Meanwhile cities like Buffalo and Los Angeles were on pace for net job growth before severe drop-offs from 2009 to 2010.
| City | 2001 Jobs | 2009 Jobs | 2010 Jobs | 2001-2010 Change | 2009-10 Change | % of Total Change from '09-10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI | 2,491,442 | 2,190,819 | 2,149,395 | (342,047) | (41,424) | 12% |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 2,755,680 | 2,695,039 | 2,631,805 | (123,875) | (63,234) | 51% |
| Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY | 633,477 | 635,760 | 633,360 | (117) | (2,400) | 2051% |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 1,242,804 | 1,137,760 | 1,129,819 | (112,985) | (7,941) | 7% |
| Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH | 1,305,414 | 1,238,090 | 1,233,618 | (71,796) | (4,472) | 6% |
| Dayton, OH | 510,606 | 462,997 | 457,207 | (53,399) | (5,790) | 11% |
| Toledo, OH | 402,987 | 367,138 | 362,987 | (40,000) | (4,151) | 10% |
| Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI | 5,399,802 | 5,443,837 | 5,362,946 | (36,856) | (80,891) | 219% |
| Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA | 307,660 | 278,025 | 276,517 | (31,143) | (1,508) | 5% |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI | 985,489 | 970,461 | 956,376 | (29,113) | (14,085) | 48% |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 1,458,576 | 1,458,656 | 1,447,309 | (11,267) | (11,347) | 101% |
| St. Louis, MO-IL | 1,643,745 | 1,640,337 | 1,634,773 | (8,972) | (5,564) | 62% |
| Rochester, NY | 614,496 | 609,812 | 606,583 | (7,913) | (3,229) | 41% |
| Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA | 841,677 | 846,195 | 835,964 | (5,713) | (10,231) | 179% |
| Greensboro-High Point, NC | 424,734 | 423,853 | 419,221 | (5,513) | (4,632) | 84% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA | 7,305,298 | 7,376,123 | 7,301,182 | (4,116) | (74,941) | 1821% |
| Akron, OH | 390,830 | 395,768 | 388,410 | (2,420) | (7,358) | 304% |
Interesting data and charts as employment is certianly critical to the health of a local economy. To determine the impact upon housing, arguably the most challenged sector of the economy these days, you need to apply these employment gains or losses as a factor of housing starts. Typically I will prepare ratios for five year periods for both employment gains/losses to permits and population gains/losses to permits going back 20 years and compare that to “optimal” ratios to determine the extent, if any, of overbuilding or underbuilding which provides a fairly good determination of the potential housaing opportunities in any metro area.
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