Hot or Cold? The State of Jobs in America’s Largest Cities

As we considered different methods of gauging how cities have performed economically, we decided to look not at just the last year of the previous decade or the whole decade itself — but a mixture of both time frames.

This post details net job growth in the 100 most populous metro areas from a) 2001 to 2010 and from b) 2009 to 2010. This allowed us to isolate how cities fared in a key post-recession year and for a much longer period.

After running the numbers using EMSI’s first quarter 2011 dataset, we’ve put the largest 100 metros into four categories:

  • Hot — These select cities performed well from 2001 to 2010 overall, and they saw net job growth from 2009 to 2010.
  • Heating Up — This is an even more select group that struggled as a whole through the decade but are now on the uptick and adding jobs.
  • Cooling Down — This group saw job growth in the early part of the decade but lost jobs in the last year (2009 to 2010).
  • Cold — These cities, many of which sit in the Rust Belt, have shown net job loss in the decade — and from 2009 to 2010.

HOT

This list is headlined by four Texas metro areas and the District of Columbia in the top five. These cities performed strongly throughout the 2000s, and haven’t shown signs of decline at the aggregate level. Notice the heavy Southern flavor in this group, which fits in line with the latest Census results regarding the fastest-rising population growth from 2000-2010.

In terms of late-arriving job growth for the decade, Boston is on top with 40% of its total growth coming from 2009 to 2010 (that percentage is shown in the far right-hand column).

City 2001 Jobs 2009 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2001-2010 Change 2009-10 Change % of Total Change from ’09-10
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3,406,627 3,846,881 3,873,746 467,119 26,865 6%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 3,386,112 3,767,963 3,800,378 414,266 32,415 8%
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 848,544 1,026,090 1,042,049 193,505 15,959 8%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 976,702 1,152,851 1,155,068 178,366 2,217 1%
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 216,473 295,212 300,877 84,404 5,665 7%
Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC 323,775 382,762 386,890 63,115 4,128 7%
Oklahoma City, OK 701,442 760,102 762,377 60,935 2,275 4%
El Paso, TX 314,261 367,440 368,461 54,200 1,021 2%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 948,429 998,531 999,247 50,818 716 1%
Provo-Orem, UT 204,078 254,028 254,865 50,787 837 2%
Honolulu, HI 557,431 606,170 607,284 49,853 1,114 2%
Columbia, SC 413,621 455,057 456,011 42,390 954 2%
Ogden-Clearfield, UT 227,975 269,557 270,252 42,277 695 2%
Knoxville, TN 391,655 431,389 432,010 40,355 621 2%
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 3,018,597 3,037,422 3,050,090 31,493 12,668 40%
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 269,694 293,675 295,648 25,954 1,973 8%
Pittsburgh, PA 1,382,237 1,399,432 1,402,872 20,635 3,440 17%
Chattanooga, TN-GA 296,129 298,468 299,068 2,939 600 20%

HEATING UP

Only four cities came up as having experienced decline from 2001 to 2009, and growth from 2009 to 2010. The group is led by New Orleans, which added the most new jobs from 2009 to 2010. Worcester, Massachusetts and Springfield, Massachusetts saw only slight upticks and pretty stagnant job numbers for the decade altogether, while Grand Rapids, Michigan had an encouraging last year of the 2000s despite losing 12,653 jobs overall.

City 2001 Jobs 2009 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2001-2010 Change 2009-10 Change
Springfield, MA 370,542 369,462 370,125 -417 663
Worcester, MA 407,157 406,376 406,687 -470 311
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 468,338 454,954 455,685 -12,653 731
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 752,871 689,544 692,504 -60,367 2,960

COOLING DOWN

If there’s one category that fits most of the country, this is it.

The third set of cities performed well in the first part of the decade but shifted toward the wrong direction from 2009 to 2010. And it’s by far the largest list. Sixty cities fall into this category, led by some of the nation’s largest metros — Houston, New York, Phoenix, Miami, and Atlanta.

City 2001 Jobs 2009 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2001-2010 Change 2009-10 Change % of Total Change from ’09-10
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 2,833,546 3,362,619 3,351,908 518,362 (10,711) -2%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 10,070,635 10,655,001 10,587,290 516,655 (67,711) -13%
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 1,927,002 2,186,350 2,169,290 242,288 (17,060) -7%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 2,763,094 3,009,289 2,986,279 223,185 (23,010) -10%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 2,768,423 3,022,042 2,977,404 208,981 (44,638) -21%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1,407,421 1,631,278 1,592,992 185,571 (38,286) -21%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1,061,143 1,232,214 1,226,731 165,588 (5,483) -3%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 863,685 1,060,970 1,026,801 163,116 (34,169) -21%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 2,019,643 2,177,269 2,163,386 143,743 (13,883) -10%
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 929,266 1,045,394 1,043,143 113,877 (2,251) -2%
Baltimore-Towson, MD 1,532,879 1,644,297 1,643,280 110,401 (1,017) -1%
Raleigh-Cary, NC 536,695 643,863 641,390 104,695 (2,473) -2%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 3,237,799 3,362,946 3,337,691 99,892 (25,255) -25%
Salt Lake City, UT 699,155 794,672 789,777 90,622 (4,895) -5%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 1,722,450 1,814,829 1,802,811 80,361 (12,018) -15%
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN 900,532 977,780 970,394 69,862 (7,386) -11%
Baton Rouge, LA 409,390 475,641 473,373 63,983 (2,268) -4%
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 1,532,503 1,617,393 1,595,061 62,558 (22,332) -36%
Jacksonville, FL 709,867 776,094 772,350 62,483 (3,744) -6%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 2,106,911 2,172,291 2,167,953 61,042 (4,338) -7%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 1,223,500 1,302,532 1,283,681 60,181 (18,851) -31%
Tucson, AZ 436,165 489,701 484,992 48,827 (4,709) -10%
Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville, CA 1,088,573 1,164,707 1,136,024 47,451 (28,683) -60%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 225,908 275,459 271,983 46,075 (3,476) -8%
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN 1,029,729 1,075,376 1,071,274 41,545 (4,102) -10%
Boise City-Nampa, ID 310,583 350,991 344,760 34,177 (6,231) -18%
Albuquerque, NM 445,880 486,783 479,361 33,481 (7,422) -22%
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA 357,656 394,333 390,785 33,129 (3,548) -11%
Kansas City, MO-KS 1,217,920 1,270,464 1,248,872 30,952 (21,592) -70%
Madison, WI 390,194 424,876 420,720 30,526 (4,156) -14%
Bakersfield-Delano, CA 312,878 347,404 343,307 30,429 (4,097) -13%
Richmond, VA 710,025 748,044 739,441 29,416 (8,603) -29%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 531,915 564,073 560,267 28,352 (3,806) -13%
Jackson, MS 304,805 329,496 329,198 24,393 (298) -1%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 563,397 591,596 587,358 23,961 (4,238) -18%
Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC 351,517 377,066 375,476 23,959 (1,590) -7%
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 391,457 415,447 414,664 23,207 (783) -3%
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY 304,530 330,652 327,466 22,936 (3,186) -14%
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 230,571 255,403 252,948 22,377 (2,455) -11%
Colorado Springs, CO 350,626 380,080 372,953 22,327 (7,127) -32%
Tulsa, OK 536,078 563,549 558,109 22,031 (5,440) -25%
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 392,453 421,302 413,960 21,507 (7,342) -34%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 238,323 262,634 259,322 20,999 (3,312) -16%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 756,139 782,143 776,706 20,567 (5,437) -26%
Fresno, CA 403,647 430,712 423,403 19,756 (7,309) -37%
Columbus, OH 1,108,612 1,139,136 1,125,935 17,323 (13,201) -76%
New Haven-Milford, CT 462,689 478,593 476,967 14,278 (1,626) -11%
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 375,330 390,924 386,873 11,543 (4,051) -35%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL 616,584 641,536 627,081 10,497 (14,455) -138%
Lancaster, PA 284,104 295,499 294,092 9,988 (1,407) -14%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 400,766 415,838 410,514 9,748 (5,324) -55%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 521,209 534,893 530,035 8,826 (4,858) -55%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 727,503 741,867 736,241 8,738 (5,626) -64%
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 1,220,014 1,238,582 1,228,716 8,702 (9,866) -113%
Stockton, CA 262,252 273,575 269,543 7,291 (4,032) -55%
Wichita, KS 368,655 380,519 373,395 4,740 (7,124) -150%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 754,530 774,354 759,268 4,738 (15,086) -318%
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA 304,399 308,713 308,083 3,684 (630) -17%
Syracuse, NY 372,559 376,458 375,492 2,933 (966) -33%
Modesto, CA 208,439 211,885 209,700 1,261 (2,185) -173%

COLD

The last set of cities have struggled to generate job growth throughout the decade — whether you look at the 2001 to 2009 time frame or 2009 to 2010. Detroit lost the most jobs (342,000), and 12% of those came in the last year of the decade. Meanwhile cities like Buffalo and Los Angeles were on pace for net job growth before severe drop-offs from 2009 to 2010.

City 2001 Jobs 2009 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2001-2010 Change 2009-10 Change % of Total Change from ’09-10
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 2,491,442 2,190,819 2,149,395 (342,047) (41,424) 12%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 2,755,680 2,695,039 2,631,805 (123,875) (63,234) 51%
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 633,477 635,760 633,360 (117) (2,400) 2051%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1,242,804 1,137,760 1,129,819 (112,985) (7,941) 7%
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 1,305,414 1,238,090 1,233,618 (71,796) (4,472) 6%
Dayton, OH 510,606 462,997 457,207 (53,399) (5,790) 11%
Toledo, OH 402,987 367,138 362,987 (40,000) (4,151) 10%
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI 5,399,802 5,443,837 5,362,946 (36,856) (80,891) 219%
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA 307,660 278,025 276,517 (31,143) (1,508) 5%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 985,489 970,461 956,376 (29,113) (14,085) 48%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1,458,576 1,458,656 1,447,309 (11,267) (11,347) 101%
St. Louis, MO-IL 1,643,745 1,640,337 1,634,773 (8,972) (5,564) 62%
Rochester, NY 614,496 609,812 606,583 (7,913) (3,229) 41%
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA 841,677 846,195 835,964 (5,713) (10,231) 179%
Greensboro-High Point, NC 424,734 423,853 419,221 (5,513) (4,632) 84%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 7,305,298 7,376,123 7,301,182 (4,116) (74,941) 1821%
Akron, OH 390,830 395,768 388,410 (2,420) (7,358) 304%

One Response to “Hot or Cold? The State of Jobs in America’s Largest Cities”

  1. danielrlevitan

    Interesting data and charts as employment is certianly critical to the health of a local economy. To determine the impact upon housing, arguably the most challenged sector of the economy these days, you need to apply these employment gains or losses as a factor of housing starts. Typically I will prepare ratios for five year periods for both employment gains/losses to permits and population gains/losses to permits going back 20 years and compare that to “optimal” ratios to determine the extent, if any, of overbuilding or underbuilding which provides a fairly good determination of the potential housaing opportunities in any metro area.

    http://www.residentialmarketingblog.com