For some time now, the U.S. Postal Service has been in bad shape, and its problems have only been made worse by our nation’s economic turmoil, increasing costs, and, of course, the ongoing trend away from snail mail. Reuters noted that the Postal Service lost an astounding $3.2 billion in just three short months. (See USPS’s original news release.) As a result, the workforce has been in fast decline. NOTE: The rest of the federal government’s civilian jobs have been doing quite well (see this blog post) in the same time period.
In this post, we’ll take a data microscope to the Postal Service (NAICS 901149) to discover a bit more. Please note that preliminary 2012 data is still a projection.
Overview
Since 2001, the Postal Service’s workforce has declined by 30%, which means an overall reduction of 253,000 jobs. The worst plunge came between 2008 and 2010 and was -12.2%.
Regional Breakdown
The chart below shows the industry’s regional breakdown.
- The states with the highest number of postal workers are California (63,867), New York (44,291), Texas (40,610), and Florida (34,356).
- What about decline? New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey (each -35%), and D.C., Illinois, and Rhode Island (each -34%) have seen the biggest overall loss.
- The 2011 average annual wage is $56,651. The highest-paying state is D.C., considerably above average at $79,174 a year. Hawaii ($70,712) and Alaska ($65,945) are next.
- The greatest concentration (measured by location quotient) is found in D.C. (1.52 LQ), New Jersey (1.33), Rhode Island (1.24), and New York (1.22). (For more on concentration, click here.)
State 2001 Jobs 2012 Jobs % Change 2011 Avg. Annual Wage
Total 869,656 616,279 (29%) $56,651
New York 68,468 44,291 (35%) $58,603
New Jersey 34,223 22,337 (35%) $58,660
Massachusetts 25,815 16,778 (35%) $59,350
Illinois 45,378 30,025 (34%) $58,024
District of Columbia 6,608 4,347 (34%) $79,174
Rhode Island 3,901 2,584 (34%) $59,887
Ohio 35,589 23,757 (33%) $56,435
California 93,782 63,867 (32%) $58,019
Michigan 30,948 21,176 (32%) $55,586
Virginia 23,178 15,691 (32%) $58,635
Missouri 21,119 14,393 (32%) $55,366
Connecticut 12,459 8,445 (32%) $60,818
Alaska 2,129 1,454 (32%) $65,945
Pennsylvania 42,801 29,662 (31%) $56,823
Maryland 17,779 12,288 (31%) $59,395
Colorado 14,924 10,308 (31%) $59,869
Indiana 17,104 12,186 (29%) $54,443
Louisiana 11,299 8,053 (29%) $55,384
Minnesota 17,925 12,825 (28%) $55,649
West Virginia 5,409 3,871 (28%) $49,908
North Dakota 2,325 1,667 (28%) $47,397
Washington 16,255 11,925 (27%) $57,366
Nebraska 6,178 4,515 (27%) $52,024
Maine 4,673 3,414 (27%) $50,107
Texas 55,226 40,610 (26%) $57,388
Florida 46,337 34,356 (26%) $58,477
Georgia 23,050 16,977 (26%) $55,589
Tennessee 16,176 11,971 (26%) $55,206
Kansas 9,563 7,062 (26%) $47,602
Oregon 9,031 6,656 (26%) $56,197
Arkansas 7,289 5,376 (26%) $49,520
New Hampshire 4,645 3,419 (26%) $55,642
New Mexico 4,391 3,257 (26%) $53,925
Arizona 12,861 9,677 (25%) $57,911
Kentucky 10,702 8,058 (25%) $51,503
Delaware 2,460 1,857 (25%) $55,041
Vermont 2,363 1,767 (25%) $49,660
Wisconsin 15,882 11,994 (24%) $52,343
Iowa 9,941 7,567 (24%) $53,556
Montana 2,809 2,124 (24%) $49,118
Mississippi 6,055 4,690 (23%) $49,386
Wyoming 1,409 1,079 (23%) $51,834
Oklahoma 9,137 7,090 (22%) $51,963
Alabama 10,742 8,528 (21%) $52,304
Hawaii 2,859 2,259 (21%) $70,712
Idaho 3,075 2,483 (19%) $49,881
South Dakota 2,474 2,024 (18%) $46,925
South Carolina 8,699 7,323 (16%) $54,142
Nevada 5,112 4,313 (16%) $58,362
North Carolina 21,916 18,775 (14%) $55,367
Utah 5,188 5,126 (1%) $47,269
Staffing Patterns
In the following table, we see the top occupations in the industry. Kinda depressing; nothing but decline.
- Postal service mail carriers makes up the largest percent of the industry (46%) but has declined the least (-19% growth).
- Postal service mail sorters/processors/processing machine operators (20% of the industry) has gotten hit the hardest (-41% growth).
SOC Code Occupation Employed in Industry (2001) Employed in Industry (2012) Change % Change % of the Total Jobs in Industry (2011) 2011 Median Hourly Wage Education Level
43-5052 Postal Service Mail Carriers 356,477 288,082 (68,395) (19%) 46.2% $25.00 Short-term on-the-job training
43-5053 Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators 209,109 122,556 (86,553) (41%) 20.3% $25.07 Short-term on-the-job training
43-5051 Postal Service Clerks 80,249 53,812 (26,437) (33%) 8.8% $25.26 Short-term on-the-job training
11-9131 Postmasters and Mail Superintendents 25,687 18,941 (6,746) (26%) 3.1% $28.36 Work experience in a related occupation
43-5061 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks 23,079 16,296 (6,783) (29%) 2.7% $20.02 Moderate-term on-the-job training
41-1012 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Non-Retail Sales Workers 14,705 10,161 (4,544) (31%) 1.7% $32.88 Work experience in a related occupation
37-2011 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 15,879 9,953 (5,926) (37%) 1.6% $10.71 Short-term on-the-job training
49-9042 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 10,735 7,524 (3,211) (30%) 1.2% $16.76 Moderate-term on-the-job training
43-5071 Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks 10,887 7,087 (3,800) (35%) 1.2% $13.58 Short-term on-the-job training
To offer a little hope (particularly for the mail carriers), we looked a bit deeper to find some highly compatible occupations. Here are the results:
If we consider 2010-2012, there is a better job outlook for occupations with high degrees of knowledge and skill overlap. Presumably, these would be occupations which postal workers could transition into with little retraining. The big thing to note, however, is that the wages associated with these jobs tend to be lower. Stock clerks and couriers & messengers (who work in other industries) and even freight and stock laborers have decent outlooks, but again, much lower wages.
Conclusion
And yet, after all this gloom and doom, we just might have found one bright spot in the future of the U.S. Postal Service: the age of the majority of its workers. According to demographic estimates, many of the employees are older, which means that the industry will likely see more retirements in the coming years. As workers retire, the sector might not need to replace as many people, and this could blunt (if only slightly) the need for additional personnel reduction to decrease costs.
Other than that, we can just keep our fingers crossed that the Postal Service succeeds in cutting costs, or Congress passes legislation offering some relief, or everyone starts sending snail mail to their grandmother.
Data for this post comes from Analyst (EMSI’s web-based labor market analysis tool) and our 2012.1 Covered Employment release. Find out more about EMSI here. You can reach us via Twitter @DesktopEcon or by emailing Rob Sentz (rob@economicmodeling.com).
