With all the headlines talking about a recession linked to the subprime crisis, we thought it would be interesting to take a look at where all those high-risk mortgages are. By combining data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), let’s look at where in the U.S. the most 2006 loans were originated through lenders who specialize in subprime loans.

In the following map, which uses 2006 mortgage data for home purchases (i.e., excluding improvement or refinance), each dot represents at most 372 loans and the dot density provides a good visualization of the counties where subprime loans are most concentrated. Note that the data set does not specifically mark loans as subprime, so as a proxy we count loans provided by certain institutions which HUD has identified as subprime lenders.

The major problem areas are in southern California, Florida, Phoenix Arizona, Dallas and Houston in Texas, and Chicago. Here is a list of the 15 counties with the highest numbers of these loans (8 of which are in California or Florida):

County	Home Purchase Loans Through Subprime Lenders, 2006
Los Angeles, CA	37,232
Miami-Dade, FL	25,452
Maricopa, AZ	22,470
Cook, IL	22,323
Harris, TX	20,367
Riverside, CA	19,530
San Bernardino, CA	17,378
Broward, FL	14,800
Clark, NV	13,807
Dallas, TX	10,007
Orange, CA	9,753
San Diego, CA	8,679
Wayne, MI	8,271
Tarrant, TX	7,865
Orange, FL	7,291

However, totals can be deceiving—what about subprime lenders’ loans as a percentage of all home purchase loans originated in the county? The following list shows just that for the top 15 “worst” subprime counties (only counties with 250 or more total home purchase loans in 2006 are included):

County	Home Purchase Loans Through Subprime Lenders, 2006	Total Home Purchase Loans Originated, 2006
Webb, TX	33.0%	4,409
Miami-Dade, FL	31.8%	80,031
San Bernardino, CA	31.7%	54,889
San Benito, CA	30.0%	794
Morehouse, LA	29.7%	347
Lee, FL	28.1%	23,124
Hinds, MS	28.0%	4,072
Broward, FL	27.9%	53,015
San Joaquin, CA	27.7%	15,722
Osceola, FL	27.7%	11,076
Solano, CA	27.5%	8,923
Los Angeles, CA	26.8%	138,958
Bronx, NY	26.6%	8,448
Riverside, CA	25.7%	75,890
Wayne, MI	25.7%	32,144

Again, California and Florida counties make up 10 of the 15 listed. For comparison, the national average percentage of subprime home purchase loans was 12.6%.

Finally, let’s go beyond just purchase loans and include loans for refinance and improvement as well. After all, purchase loans accounted for less than half of all subprime loans in 2006 (see graphic).

Here, then, are the counties with the highest percentage of all types of loans from subprime lenders (counties with fewer than 500 total loans excluded):

County	% of All Loans from Subprime Lenders, 2006	Total Loans Originated in 2006
Webb, TX	30.6%	6,071
Petersburg City, VA	30.1%	1,157
Washington, MS	29.7%	684
Miami-Dade, FL	29.7%	143,259
Cullman, AL	28.7%	2,380
Bronx, NY	28.6%	15,893
Hinds, MS	27.8%	6,963
Osceola, FL	27.5%	20,655
Maverick, TX	27.3%	754
DeSoto, FL	27.2%	977
Baltimore City, MD	26.3%	29,851
Kings, NY	26.3%	38,222
Hendry, FL	26.0%	1,012
Prince George’s, MD	25.7%	80,276
Piscataquis, ME	25.6%	660
Lee, FL	25.5%	43,900

The list isn’t quite the same, is it? For comparison, the U.S. average rate for subprime loans of all types was 14.1% in 2006.

Originally posted: Monday, March 31st, 2008
Last modified: Monday, March 31st, 2008