According to the study completed by the Workforce Boards of Metropolitan Chicago, 43% of the region’s jobs are of the middle-skill variety — that is, jobs that require some post-high school training or education but less than a bachelor’s degree. The report used EMSI data to compile regional labor market figures, education and training requirements, and anticipated earnings for a broad range of middle-skill occupations. “We really do credit EMSI in being able to get that data at a regional level to be able to produce the study,” says Jennifer Stasch, Executive Director for the Workforce Board of Northern Cook County and a member of the regional consortium.

The metro Chicago report comes in response to a Skills2Compete study, “America’s Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs,” and the Obama administration’s challenge for every American to commit to at least one of year postsecondary education or training. It highlights EMSI projections that estimate 8% growth for middle-skill jobs from 2009-2014 in the metro Chicago area. Further, 41% of all new jobs in the region are projected to be middle-skill.

Although the highest demand among associate degree-holders is in the registered nursing field, one goal of the report is to show the variety of sectors outside of health care that need middle-skill labor. The highest-earning jobs include Correctional officers and jailers ($39 per hour) and Operating engineers ($35 an hour). Both occupations require, on average, moderate-term on-the-job training.

Observes Stasch, “We believe middle-skill jobs are the jobs that the workforce system, specifically WIA, is in position to support and train for in a relatively short amount of time. So we thought it was important to share that information with our workforce system.”

Click here to read the full study.

Some of the findings:

1. More than a third (36.1%) of all manufacturing in Berrien, Cass, and Van Buren counties is made up of automotive product manufacturing, compared to 18.6% for the nation and 47.4% for Michigan as a whole.
2. In the best case scenario, just over 1,200 local jobs will be lost in the next 18 months; the worst case scenario calls for more than 8,300 layoffs.
3. Surveyed employers say nearly half of the layoffs will come in the next six months.

For the full report, click here. A local newspaper article on the study can be found here.

1. To provide definitions for green jobs and green firms to allow for consistent use and understanding
2. Illustrate various scenarios for how green is affecting the workforce
3. Demonstrate the green subsectors, traditional occupations and sectors, and emerging occupations and sectors
4. Provide a framework for additional study to help colleges respond to this new green reality

The CoE has consistently put together solid analysis on a large variety of subjects related to industry-sector analysis from a community college’s perspective, but this report deserves special praise for tackling a subject that resists easy definitions and simple answers. In addition, the COE did some nice mapping of green economy occupations to training programs (in TOP and CIP codes). The mapping links over 90 occupations (defined by SOC and O*NET-SOC codes) to more than 150 training programs. If you would like some help doing the same thing — let us know.

>>Click here to access the report

That which is not defined cannot be measured. That which is not measured cannot be improved. That which is not improved will languish. Without a clear definition, green policy initiatives will be too diffused to be effective and success will be impossible to measure.

The analysis is based on a sample of 262 colleges in 14 states, representing roughly one-third of the current total enrollment in community and technical colleges in the country. The findings from the sample were used to generate results by inference for the some 1,200 colleges in the United States. Two major analyses are conducted: 1) investment analyses from the perspectives of the students and the taxpayers, and 2) economic growth analysis to determine the relative contribution to GDP by the community and technical colleges.

Some of the findings include:

• The average associate’s degree holder will earn $9,000 more annually ($325,000 lifetime) because of that degree.
• Associate’s-level education confers a number of benefits to students as well as the general public. The analysis translates the economic growth effect of community and technical college education into increased state and local government revenues (via increased tax receipts). Added to these are an assortment of social savings, e.g., avoided costs stemming from reductions in incarceration, welfare, health care support, and others.
• Taxpayers, who bear about 58% of community and technical college costs, receive a 16% return on their investment in the colleges—well above the 4% opportunity cost of funds.
• The bottom line: colleges return more to taxpayers than they cost.

Though a small community, Liberians in the United States and Minnesota have a significant impact on the national and local economy. This report will document the multidimensional economic contributions of Liberians in Minnesota and the nation. The local analysis in Minnesota can help estimate the national economic contributions of this community to the nation.

- Liberians in the United States have a buying power of over a billion dollars. This is equivalent to two times the GDP of Liberia in 2005.

- In Minnesota Liberian buying power is an estimated $157 million dollars which is almost as large as the 2007-08 Liberian National Budget of $199 million dollars.

Read the report here.

These regional “knowledge clusters” were identified using several data elements:

• High-tech industry and industry clusters
• High-knowledge occupation clusters
• College degree attainment
• Patent generation
• Relative density of higher education institutions

After condensing all this information in to a single “innovation index,” the authors plotted a map of the hottest innovation zones in the U.S.

Download the draft paper (PDF): PNREC 2008 Paper – Knowledge and Innovation Clusters

The task force got its first official look at all the compiled data, as well as information from the 2006 gap analysis, which was conducted by Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. A gap analysis looks at a community and determines what needs are being met and what needs remain unfulfilled. This is accomplished using public data and demographics, NWACC consultant Patti Mocivnik explained.

Susan Holmes, co-facilitator for the task force, said the results make the priorities quite clear. Certain types of programs, such as programs for medical professions, are clearly needed, but so is a type of program called a university center. University centers are programs in which other colleges and universities can partner with NWACC to provide their four-year degrees using NWACC facilities.

Read the full article here.

EMSI’s gap analysis drew on an integrated database of over 70 public sources to organize key demographic, economic, and labor market information for the college. The report was prepared as part of a statewide initiative that included similar reports for all Arkansas community and technical colleges.

The report focused on tourism and hospitality, non-nursing health care, retail, and maritime industry sectors. In particular, the report helped inform the college’s newly-launched Project Welcome, an initiative designed to train students for careers in New York’s fast-growing tourism and hospitality industries. In a recent local news article, representatives from the college and Workforce Strategy Center lauded the project’s success.

Indeed, a year after the launch of the program, Project Welcome, Kingsborough Community College (KCC) is reporting success above and beyond what was initially predicted, opening the door to potential success for those just beginning their work careers as well as those making mid-life career changes.

Stuart Schulman, the director of KCC’s Center for Economic and Workforce Development, said that Project Welcome – which had been established thanks to a $1.7 million grant from the United States Department of Labor – had exceeded the federal requirements as far as the number of people trained is concerned. In addition, Schulman said that the program — which centers on a 280-hour, 10 week course — had also exceeded its goals in terms of placement.

The framework used by Workforce Strategy Center, known as “Career Pathways,” is designed to help workers get training for jobs in high-demand fields with clear opportunities for future career advancement. It has been successfully paired with EMSI’s wealth of regional labor market data in several workforce development projects around the country.

It is true that Ohio’s manufacturing sector saw a loss of some 93,000 jobs (about 10 percent) from 2002 to 2007, even as other portions of the economy were pulling out of the 2001 recession. Nationally, the manufacturing sector lost more than a million jobs, or 7 percent, over the same period. However, this does not at all mean that manufacturing should be neglected by economic development efforts. Rather, the sector is now undergoing intense restructuring that will require innovative, targeted investments. In particular, Ohio economic development professionals should be aware of four major trends in the state’s manufacturing sector:

1. The sector is actually adding new jobs in many non-urban areas.
2. The sector is becoming smaller, more productive, and higher-paying.
3. An aging workforce and rapid skill changes will tighten the sector’s job market.
4. The weak dollar will benefit manufacturers who can export products.

Read on to examine each of these trends in more detail: Recent Trends in Ohio Manufacturing (PDF)

1. Manufacturing employment is actually growing in many non-urban areas.

Statewide trends have obscured the fact that the manufacturing sector is either stable or adding new jobs in about one-third of Ohio’s counties. The following map shows growth or decline of the manufacturing sector in terms of percent job change from 2002 to 2007. The most recent published data are from Q1/Q2 2007, which we have used to estimate the 2007 annual average.

(Source: Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI), Complete Employment Industry Data, March 2008. Unlike QCEW/ES-202 statistics, our figures include proprietors and other workers not covered by unemployment insurance. In addition, numbers include estimates for data points marked as “non-disclosed” in public data sources.)

The primary trend highlighted here is the fact that growth is occurring exclusively in suburban and rural counties. This may reflect a trend called “farmshoring,” in which companies move operations to less urbanized areas (instead of overseas) to reduce costs.

The five counties experiencing the most total (not percentage) manufacturing job growth are:

Source: EMSI Complete Employment, March 2008.

Of course, not all types of manufacturing firms are hiring. Among only those Ohio counties with positive job growth in manufacturing overall, the fastest-growing specific sectors are:

Source: EMSI Complete Employment, March 2008. Job numbers are aggregated from only those counties experiencing growth in the manufacturing sector overall.

Again, statewide totals can mask what is actually happening—at the state level, employment in all these industries is declining, even as it grows in some selected counties. Granular local data helps tease out the specific trends.

2. Manufacturing is becoming smaller, more productive, higher-tech, and higher-paying.

Despite steady job loss, the total inflation-adjusted value of goods produced by Ohio manufacturers was 6% higher in 2006 compared to 1997—a real increase of $4.7 billion in total output despite the steep decline in 2001 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).

In addition, smaller firms are weathering the conditions much better than larger firms. From 1998 to 2005, Ohio experienced a net loss of 170 manufacturing firms (or 23%) having 250 or more employees, while during the same period, among firms having 1-4 and 5-9 employees there was a net loss of only 2.3% and 4.6%, respectively. And firms with fewer than 10 employees totaled 29.3% of all firms in 2005, up from 27.6% in 1998 (Source: Census, County Business Patterns).

Meanwhile, from 2001 to 2006, inflation-adjusted average annual pay in Ohio manufacturing jobs rose by nearly 3% to over $50,000 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)—a sign that demand for the right workers remains strong. The low-skilled jobs are leaving, while the jobs that remain are both higher-skilled and high-paying. Anecdotal evidence suggests that manufacturing employers can’t find enough good workers (see, for example, this article from the Cleveland Plain Dealer).

3. An aging workforce and rapidly changing skill requirements will tighten the job market.

In 2000, nearly 40% of Ohio’s manufacturing workers were age 45 or older, and the number is likely much higher now in 2008. Their retirements, combined with a general lack of interest in manufacturing shown by younger workers (see, for example, this recent story on CBS) as well as new high-tech skill requirements, will leave a large number of job openings left unfilled over the next decade. Just for the 5 most common manufacturing occupations in Ohio earning more than $15 per hour, EMSI estimates that there will be nearly 47,000 job openings from 2008 to 2018.

Conclusion

Manufacturing in Ohio is not going away—it is merely undergoing a profound change in how business gets done. Opportunities abound for entrepreneurial firms that can be agile, low-impact, and highly productive, and for the regions that are able to recruit and retain them.

About EMSI

Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI) is a professional services firm that offers integrated regional data, web-based analysis tools, data-driven reports, and customized consulting services. EMSI has served thousands of workforce, education, economic development, and other policy professionals in the U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom, and the company’s web-based Strategic Advantage research and analysis suite is used by over 2,500 professionals across the U.S. For more information, call (866) 999-3674 or visit www.economicmodeling.com.