Since the early 2000s, there’s been a spike in health care degrees, large dips in computers and engineering technology, and slowdown in the education field. These are some of the trends we noticed after analyzing data on a selected group of programs from the National Center of Education Statistics (NCES).

The completion numbers also showed the key role community colleges play in educating the workforce. From 2003-2009, 59% of new graduates and 49% of total graduates in the programs we selected (*see below for more) came at the certificate and associate’s degrees levels. Of course, four-year schools often offer certificate programs and two-year degrees, but CCs are the main providers of these degrees.

The Data

Before we get into the trends, here’s a table that shows national completions from ’03-09 using two-digit CIP codes. This includes degrees at the certificate, associate’s, and bachelor’s level.

One note on the percentage of new grads at the one- and two-year level category: If the percentage is above 100% — like it is for education and engineering technologies — that means there was decline from ’03-09 at the bachelor’s degree level. If there’s a negative percentage — as it is for agriculture operations — that means there was a decline at the certificate and bachelor’s degree level and growth at the bachelor’s level.

*There were approximately 15 programs we excluded from this analysis. Most posted very low numbers of graduates at the certificate and associate’s level.

Health Care Boom

The popularity of health care programs exploded in the 2000s. At the certificate and associate’s levels, health professions and related clinical sciences had the greatest growth among completers. At the bachelor’s level, health professions come in second place — behind business management marketing and related support services.

Though the health care industry has been in severe need of graduates over the past decade, the demand for workers is not infinite. A rough estimation of supply vs. demand reveals that between the 2003-2009 academic years, there were nearly 3.7 million completers in health care-related programs, compared to an estimated demand of 2.79 million new and replacement jobs. And given what we know about the health care industry and its seemingly unquenchable need for more workers — this seems like a odd figure.* As a result, actually determining the real gaps and surpluses in the educational industry is a complicated process and not as simple as finding the difference between these two numbers.

*Turnover in health care occupations may be greater than anticipated, which might partly explain the large need for workers despite the labor market numbers.

Computers and Information Bust

No educational field experienced more decline in graduates from ’03-09 than computer and information sciences and support services. All told, the number of graduates dipped by over 53,000 between 2003-2009 — a decrease of more than 8,000 graduates per year. This change could be attributed to Americans’ increased competency with computers, or to the residual effects of the tech bubble bursting in 2000-2001.

There have been some signs of health, however, in computers and information. In 2009, there was a net increase in the number of graduates compared to ’08 for the first time over the time frame of the study. Wary students seem to have overreacted to the signs of decline because unlike the healthcare field, computers and technology industries could stand to benefit from an increase in graduates. There was a estimated shortage of over 147,000 workers nationally from ’03-09.

Shifting Career Paths in Education

Typically education is one of the most popular programs, with an average of over 129,000 students completing programs each year. But unlike some of the other popular programs, education may be losing ground.

Among the top five most popular programs in 2009, all except education experienced at least 16% growth in graduation figures between ’03-09. Education increased by just 2% over this time period. This shift seems to be largely occurring at the bachelor’s degree level; between ’03-07, the number of bachelor’s level graduates in education decreased by over 3,000 at the national level.

On the other hand, more and more students are pursuing education as a program at the certificate and associate’s degree level (almost 5,000 more graduates in 2009 compared to 2003). Bachelor’s level education still dominates the field in terms of training paths toward a career in education— over 80% of the country’s graduates in this field received a bachelor’s degree in 2009.

This data suggests that community college is becoming a more viable option for students who are interested in the education profession.

If you’d like more information on completers and labor market data for your region, please email Josh Wright (jwright@economicmodeling.com).

To be sure, Mount Airy is struggling after huge employment losses when textile and apparel plants closed. But the area’s short-term retraining provider, Surry Community College, has been creative in helping getting local residents re-employed.

One of the recent bright spots: Surry CC’s viticulture and enology program. That’s right — the community college is helping displaced manufacturing workers transition into North Carolina’s burgeoning winemaking industry.

USA Today does a nice job outlining the issues in this story.

North Carolina’s entrepreneurs have been planting vineyards to replace tobacco fields and starting wineries to draw tourists. Across the state, the acreage set aside for vineyards has more than doubled since 2000. North Carolina is now No. 10 nationwide in growing grapes and No. 7 in making wine.

Surry Community College is turning out graduates who can grow grapes, apply pesticides, make wine and market vintages. The college has a 4-acre vineyard and sells wines under its Surry Cellars label. Graduates of its viticulture and enology program can find work in vineyards for up to $17 an hour and as winemakers for up to $70,000 a year.

What other fields are showing promise in the region and might be good targets for retraining? Here’s a table of high-growth industries projected out to 2011 put together in EMSI’s labor market research tool. We filtered out industries that pay less than $25,000 per year.

And using EMSI’s regionalized staffing patterns, here are the fastest-changing occupations for the above industries.

If you’re interested in seeing this data for your region, please contact Josh Wright (jwright@economicmodeling.com).

Illustration by Mark Beauchamp

An outstanding news story from today’s “Morning Edition” on NPR highlighted the struggle that faces many community colleges and workforce boards: Companies want new workers but can’t find people with the right skills, and lots of people are looking for new careers but aren’t qualified for the jobs that exist. The solution seems simple — just get the unemployed people into the new jobs. …

However, as the story pointed out, it’s not really that easy.

In most cases, the primary hurdle that jobseekers, the workforce system, and companies face is that of skill gaps. Former manufacturing workers who have lost their jobs in places like GM plants are quickly realizing new jobs require a lot more training while employers generally expect workers to be proficient in a variety of tasks. Many of the skill sets associated with modern domestic manufacturing require the level of training found in the information technology sector.

>> For more on this, check out this article on mechatronics by Scott Sheely of the Lancaster County Workforce Investment Board.

As a result, workers trying to re-enter the workforce are often in need of heavy retraining, which is a dreaded concept because it means having to “go back to school.” Workers in their 30s or 40s, accustomed to the higher wages and benefits of a GM or Chrysler, will quickly grasp the implications. They have to figure out how to pay the mortgage, support the family, and go back to school all at the same time. It is a very exhausting reality to face, and many workers have either dropped out of the system or become too intimidated to contact colleges or the workforce community for help.

At EMSI, we want to help colleges and workforce boards break through this wall to encourage and support these workers so they can be retrained and re-employed. We have two services that are great starting points for understanding local employment and helping people connect to meaningful careers:

1. First, we have designed a powerful research and planning tool to let your college unlock local employment data in order to better understand local skills needs and the characteristics of local industries and occupations. This information is so key because it helps you communicate with local companies about what sort of skills and training they look for so you can make sure your programs are hitting the target.
2. Second, we are currently developing a new tool that can be placed directly into your college’s website so jobseekers can easily browse and understand local jobs (wages, trends, and openings) and find related training at your college. In this tool we will directly link occupations to your college’s specific departments and training programs so jobseekers can get in touch with the right training. Be sure to check back soon for more.

For more information on how EMSI can help, please contact Rob Sentz (rob@economicmodeling.com).

On the other end of the spectrum, art, entertainment, and recreation (0.9%) and construction (1.1%) have the fewest job openings, compared to a percentage of total existing and open jobs. Catherine Rampell explains more here.

For more detail, here’s an informative table from the JOLTS report:

A quick survey of data in EMSI’s Job Aggregator tool confirms these numbers. For example, below are the top jobs over the last week by openings for New York, based on Indeed.com’s database. The tool combines the postings for any region and filters them by SOC code and education level.

Five of the 10 top occupations are in the health care industry, while physical therapist assistants is closely associated.

For more on EMSI’s Job Aggregator, reach us at 866.999.3674 or rob@economicmodeling.com.

The following graph is from his blog — his analysis showed that more than 100 economists were hired in 2009.

If you’re even more curious, here are the top industries that staff economists. This chart also comes from EMSI’s labor market tools. There were 112 net new economist jobs in 2009, but everyone of the top industries — except for the federal government — shed a small percentage.

Federal employees make 20% more than a private-sector workers in the same occupation, the newspaper discovered. Federal workers out-earn their counterparts in more than eight of 10 occupations. The articles includes some great detail, including a long table comparing wages of specific occupations:

In other news today, the February BLS jobs report is out and the unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. Job losses are starting to peter out but check out this graph from Economix on employment declines in recent recessions. Startling to the say the least.

“Potential saviors of the economy.”

That comes from University Business, which has a lengthy look at community colleges in its latest edition. The article hits on renewed attention from lawmakers that has put two-year training providers in the spotlight.

The attention partly explains why full-time enrollment at community colleges nationwide has increased 24% in the last two years, according to the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC).

“Never in my life would I have expected community colleges to be called potential saviors of the economy,” says George Boggs, president of the American Association of Community Colleges. “When the downturn started and people were being laid off, community colleges sent teams into companies to talk to workers about their options,” he explains. The importance of community colleges progressed from there.

As the recession drags on and more people turn to higher ed as a way to weather the storm, community colleges are increasingly in demand. “I think we are going to drive this economy back to where it needs to be,” says Mary Spangler, president of Houston Community College.

The articles also tackles the funding and budget issues facing community colleges, as well as the importance of articulation agreements to ensure community college students can move on to get bachelor degrees — and beyond.

Articulation agreements are also needed because long-term economic recovery will require them. “As the economy recovers, the demand over the next several years for BA and higher degrees will be pretty robust,” says Tony Carnevale, director of the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University (D.C.). According to CEW projections, there will be around 13 million job openings for people with certificates or AA degrees and 17 million for holders of a BA and higher from 2008 to 2018.

“When employers start hiring again, it will be across the entire economy,” says Tony Pals, director of public information for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities. He highlights information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that 2009 unemployment rates among people who hold BA and higher degrees are lower than those with associate degrees. Although, AA holders have faired better than those without any college education. “For the nation’s economic well being, we need to increase the number of workers who complete some form of postsecondary study,” Pals says.

Why have community colleges proven to be so valuable? Well, here’s just one example: Valencia Community College in Florida, an EMSI client, has partnered with a local high school to offer a program that lets students formally work toward a college degree at a full-fledged Valencia campus next door to their high school.

According to the Orlando Sentinel story, “An added bonus for students who shoot for an associate degree: “If kids stay on track, they can save thousands of dollars,” (Principal Rob) Anderson said.

Oregon Representative Peter DeFazio took exception to the estimate and wrote a letter to Kai Ryssdal, host of Marketplace. You can listen to the segment or read the transcript here. (The topic comes up at around 20:45 of the audio stream.)

Here’s the essence of it from the transcript:

Finally, an object lesson in the perils of covering the American economy. A couple of Fridays ago, Felix Salmon, one of the regulars in our Weekly Wrap, said this as a part of a conversation about how the president can create new jobs.

FELIX SALMON: Of course, infrastructure investment is extremely expensive way of creating jobs. It costs a good $200,000 per job.

Couple of days later we got a letter from a listener, someone who’s been on the show a couple of times, actually. Representative Peter DeFazio, Democrat of Oregon.

The congressman took issue with Felix’s $200,000 a job figure. He says the number’s really closer to $92,000 a job. That’s according to the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Mr. DeFazio told us. Felix got his estimate from a private consulting firm, called Economic Modeling Specialists, Incorporated.

So, what is the object lesson here? That what you believe about business and the economy depends in very great measure on who you talk to and what economists you read. That is why we’ve put links to the studies and economic models both Felix and Congressman DeFazio quoted on our Web site, so you can have a look and maybe decide for yourselves.

The next day, Salmon posted DeFazio’s letter in full on his blog and wrote a scathing response on how the government “fudges” job statistics. Salmon’s lengthy post and the dozens of comments below make for some fascinating reading — he distinguishes between “dollars per job created” and the “job-years” that DeFazio refers to.

Salmon especially nails it in this section:

The fact is that if you move away from vague country-level statistics and start drilling down to the actual number of jobs created by actual infrastructure projects, you never get anywhere near $92,000 per job. For instance, have a look at the job-creation statistics on this page.

A 5-mile stretch of highway, costing $50 million, creates a total of 79 jobs. That’s over $600,000 per job. Even if you divide that by two on the grounds that it’s a two-year project, that’s still $300,000 per job-year. In railways, a $15 million investment creates 12 jobs — that’s $1.25 million per job, and it’s a one-year project.

I’ve seen similar numbers surrounding hospitals, and higher numbers surrounding nuclear power stations — basically, infrastructure investment is an incredibly inefficient way of creating jobs.

If you have any questions on EMSI’s series of green jobs papers, please contact Rob Sentz at rob@economicmodeling.com.

The political site points out that productivity in the sector has increased in the last 15 years, and the decline in manufacturing jobs has more to do with low education levels than imports/outsourcing.

Going back to the recent post on employment remember that in this recession the unemployment rate of specific groups was heavily influenced by education level. In fact, according to the BLS, higher education levels (college graduates and above) were remarkably untouched in the latest recession while lower education levels (high school graduates, high school with some secondary education) had higher rates of unemployment. Lower levels of education are typically associated with manufacturing and construction employment — the two areas of jobs that account for the largest percentage of job losses in this recession.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times writes that US manufacturing is still facing a shortage of skilled workers — despite the widespread shedding of jobs. Nearly 20 percent of the nation’s manufacturing workforce is 54 and older.

“All large technical firms are facing similar issues, where a large part of the population is eligible to retire,” said Rick Stephens, senior vice-president of human resources at Boeing.

He said that by 2015, 40 per cent of the aircraft maker’s workers would be in that position. “That’s some 60,000 employees eligible to retire in five years. We just don’t see the [recruitment] pipeline meeting our needs.”

With this in mind, we looked at EMSI’s Career Pathways tool to see the top skills needed in two key manufacturing occupations in the advanced materials industry cluster — machinists and first-line managers of production and operating workers. Nationwide, there were more than 153,000 machinists and 159,000 first-line managers in the cluster in 2009, according to EMSI’s latest dataset.

For more on the top skills for key occupations in your region, email Josh Wright or call 208.883.3500.

It’s no secret that education correlates to income levels, but the statistics are so stark in North Central Ohio that they bear review. Our region is grossly undereducated when compared with Ohio, which itself is undereducated when compared with the nation. Census data show only 39% of our 25-and-over population has at least some college experience, compared to 51% for the state and 55% for the nation. This directly impacts our average income, which significantly trails the state and nation.

Yet decent paying jobs are still available in our region for those with postsecondary education, in part due to turnover from the aging workforce. The key is up-skilling our population to fill these positions, reaching out to both the youth and adult populations.

Educational Attainment and Income: Ashland, Richland, and Crawford Counties, Ohio

Not enough youth aspire to postsecondary education in our region. According to data from the Ohio Board of Regents, only 44% of regional graduating public high school seniors in 2007 enrolled in an Ohio college the following fall — the lowest enrollment level since 2002. In a survey of approximately 800 regional high school seniors last spring, while 80% agreed that postsecondary education was their best choice after high school, 57% responded they had not contacted any postsecondary institutions. Only half had taken the ACT college placement test, including many with high GPAs.

2010-11 Projections and Income by Ed Level — Ashland, Richland, and Crawford Counties

Our community is responding to this crisis through a regional P-16 council of business, education and philanthropic representatives with a primary goal to improve the flow of high school graduates into postsecondary education or training (http://sparcp16.org/). For the second straight year, it has obtained funding to provide pre-ACT assessments to every 8th and 10th grader in region. With coordinated follow-up by school officials, these assessments have challenged youth to carefully consider their postsecondary aspirations and rigor of their high school course planning while they still have time. Likewise, SPARC (Succeed and Prosper through Education in Ashland, Richland, and Crawford counties) has spawned an active mentoring program in Crawford County and now placed dedicated college access advisors within Ashland County high schools.

Likewise, area high schools and colleges have collaborated to expand early college learning options to high school youth. Despite the loss of start-up state/federal funding, these programs continue to grow and thrive through innovative cost-share and scholarship agreements. We encourage parents to press their children toward early college experience, as some student surveys have shown this early taste inspires them to continue beyond high school.

Yet we must continue to reach out to adults, and several community partnerships are expanding access, such as:

• Hourly Richland County Transit service to the Ohio State Mansfield/NC State campus.
• A life skills program for cash public assistance recipients in Richland County — of which more than 50 have now enrolled in postsecondary education given the exposure to the campus climate.
• A career counseling office at Ohio State/NC State advising dislocated workers. Established as a branch of the regional One-Stop, it offers an array of tools to help direct transitioning workers toward a new career path.
• Agreements with area adult career centers allowing students to transfer technical training toward a degree.
• A variety of on-campus or near-campus bachelor degree completion programs. NC State is especially excited about its growing transfer relationships with Ohio State Mansfield and Ashland University.

We finally encourage the adult community to contact a local college to career center to investigate the convenient, flexible learning options available to them – regardless of your past. It is never too late to start over!

For more information, Tom Prendergast may be reached at tprendergast@ncstatecollege.edu. More on Prendergast’s work and the economic difficulties facing North Central Ohio can be found in this case study.