It’s hard to envision with so many hunting for work, but in a few years there will be millions more job openings than available workers in the US according to new study.
The authors of the Northeastern University study, highlighted today by Real Time Economics, argue that the scores of Baby Boomers set to hit retirement age will lead to 14.6 million new nonfarm payroll jobs by 2018 — while only about 9.6 million workers will be available to replace them. The social sector, they contend, will be most impacted.
If the expected additional labor force participants distribute themselves between the new social sector jobs and the rest of the economy in the same proportion as the number of projected new jobs, an estimated 4.3 million additional workers can be expected to fill these social sector positions. Taking into account multiple job holders, the number of jobs that could be filled at current labor force participation rates is 4.5 million, leaving anywhere from 2.4 to 2.6 million potential new jobs vacant in these social sector industries.
While it’s hard to know exactly when Baby Boomers will step aside from their jobs, there’s no getting around the dramatic demographic shifts that are taking place. Here are EMSI’s demographic projections for the nation through 2018. Notice the huge growth in the 55-79 age cohorts, while most other cohorts decrease or hardly fluctuate.