Thousands of clients worldwide are already using Analyst, EMSI’s premier web-based labour market data tool. Now, EMSI is pleased to introduce Analyst for Canada. Based on EMSI’s unique and comprehensive set of workforce and demographic data, Analyst for Canada provides community colleges, workforce boards, and anyone with an interest in understanding the dynamics of Canada’s regional economies with a fast, easy way of getting the data-driven answers they need to make informed, objective decisions.
In December, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Chief Economist Benjamin Tal released a significant new study of the Canadian labour market. Focusing on the increasing disconnect between the skills of workers available in the workforce and the hiring needs of Canada’s employers, the report found that Canada is facing two significant problems. On one hand, the CIBC reported that at least 30% of Canadian businesses indicated that they were dealing with a skilled labour shortage. Yet, on the other, workers in many skills fields are facing a rapid decrease in job openings. There simply aren’t enough jobs to match the supply of trained workers in a number of occupations, even as other industries are being hamstrung by a severe labour shortage.
The CIBC report draws conclusions about the national implications of this two-sided labour problem, identifying 25 jobs that were in higher demand than the labour market could supply, and 20 jobs whose hiring demands are oversupplied. We thought that this sounded like just the kind of thing that EMSI’s new Analyst for Canada would be perfect for looking at a little more thoroughly. In Part 1, we’ll look at the dynamics of the CIBC high-demand-jobs set as a whole, seeing which parts of it are growing or declining and where the jobs are for the whole set. In Part 2, we’ll look in more depth at some specific industries and occupation subsets within the larger group, and find out where the action is for those looking for jobs in those occupations.
The first thing we did was organize CIBC’s list of 25 occupations showing skills shortages into an occupation group in Analyst, so that we could look at how these jobs are doing as a whole. We immediately found that the CIBC had done some rearranging to make a neat and tidy list of 25 jobs; EMSI uses Statistics Canada’s NOC-S system for defining occupations, and the jobs on the CIBC list actually include 55 NOC-S occupations. That’s a large, unwieldy number, but we’re going to use it for a few things before we break it down into more detail.
As a group, despite the labour shortage, these 55 jobs have been doing just fine. In fact, from 2010 to 2012, the group as a whole has grown by 4.3%, adding 56,384 jobs. In 2012, this group accounted for 1,377,051 jobs nationwide, a respectable portion of Canada’s 15.4 million jobs. Within those 55 occupations, though, there are definite winners and losers. On the plus side, several occupations in the group experienced growth of well over 20%. Leaders included:
- Mechanical engineers, growing 22% and adding 7,385 jobs
- Architecture and science managers (23.3%, 1,678 new jobs)
- Head nurses and supervisors, (26.6%, 5,164 new jobs)
- and the big percentage winner, drillers and blasters (surface mining, quarrying, and construction), which increased 33.9% by adding 845 jobs to a small sector.
Overall, of the 55 jobs we’re considering, 42 showed either negligible or positive growth from 2010 to 2012, and 11 grew by 10% or more.
On the flip side of the coin, it was rough two years for the other 13 occupations. Some of the sharpest declines came in:
- Other occupations in physical sciences (-14%, losing 348 jobs)
- Computer and IT systems managers (-6%, losing 3,050 jobs)
- Engineering managers (-17%, losing 3,714 jobs)
The last of those, engineering managers, points out an interesting trend in the job market. While engineering managers were down significantly, actual engineers in specific fields showed positive growth across the board. These losses, centred on CMAs like Ottawa and Longueil which have recently been seeing significant foreign investment in the tech sector, suggest a significant number of smaller firms being started, which don’t have large enough employee bodies to need distinct engineering managers, as well as many engineers contracting their services to foreign companies.
For another perspective, we used Analyst’s GIS tool to look at where this group of occupations was experiencing the most change, positive and negative. The results are striking. This map shows Canada as a whole, with growth numbers for the 55-occupation set as a whole represented at the Census Division level.
Where are the CIBC jobs doing the best? Edmonton, for one, is doing great, adding a total of 3,342 jobs for a 9% growth. Vancouver is booming as well, adding 2,374 jobs and growing 4%. Percentage-wise, the real winners include Wellington, which grew 28% to 5,841 jobs; Simcoe, up 24% to 8,000; and Waterloo, growing 19% to 14,721.
So far we’ve only looked at the complete set of 55 occupations that the CIBC report addressed. But within that large group, there are several groups of related occupations that jumped out at us. To get another perspective on the impact of the 55 occupations on Canada, we’ve broken the group down into these smaller sets and looked at how they’re doing.
One of the most significant groups in the overall list is the cluster of healthcare occupations. The ongoing need for more workers in every healthcare occupations returns to the headlines too frequently to ever be forgotten — but how large is that sector already? Of the 55 occupations scrambling for workers, 14 are related to healthcare. We ran a nationwide report on these 14 occupations to see which were growing the fastest, which you can see below:
NOC-S | Description | 2010 Jobs | 2012 Jobs | Change | % Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source: Employees & Self-Employed - EMSI 2012.4 BETA | |||||
D112 | Registered nurses | 276,094 | 283,905 | 7,811 | 3% |
D111 | Head nurses and supervisors | 19,502 | 24,913 | 5,411 | 28% |
D011 | Specialist physicians | 36,616 | 38,946 | 2,330 | 6% |
D013 | Dentists | 18,785 | 20,728 | 1,943 | 10% |
D021 | Optometrists | 3,879 | 5,022 | 1,143 | 29% |
A014 | Senior managers - Health, education, social and community services and membership organizations | 7,766 | 8,750 | 984 | 13% |
E021 | Psychologists | 21,724 | 22,389 | 665 | 3% |
D012 | General practitioners and family physicians | 46,214 | 46,695 | 481 | 1% |
D032 | Dietitians and nutritionists | 8,737 | 9,205 | 468 | 5% |
D223 | Dental technologists, technicians and laboratory bench workers | 6,493 | 6,801 | 308 | 5% |
D023 | Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating | 4,912 | 5,200 | 288 | 6% |
D022 | Chiropractors | 6,343 | 6,628 | 285 | 4% |
D219 | Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) | 5,214 | 4,678 | (536) | (10%) |
D031 | Pharmacists | 28,178 | 26,704 | (1,474) | (5%) |
Total | 490,455 | 510,563 | 20,108 | 4% |
Some highlights:
- The real shortage in nursing isn’t just in registered nurses, but especially in the obvious need for experienced nurses to fill jobs as head nurses and supervisors, a sector which spiked by 27%, or over 5,000 jobs. It’s hard to say why registered nurses would want to make the transition, though; head nurses earn, on average, only a dollar more per hour than registered nurses.
- While the job market for pharmacists seems to be shrinking (although it did grow marginally from 2011 to 2012), they make exceptionally high wages — an average of $41.40, more than any other occupation in this set.
- While nursing occupations are growing rapidly, the number of general practitioners and family physicians stayed essentially flat, a surprising inconsistency with the rest of the group.
Another stand-out group in the CIBC 55 is the booming oil and gas mining industry. We ran the same report on these nine jobs:
NOC-S Description 2010 Jobs 2012 Jobs Change % Change
Source: Employees & Self-Employed - EMSI 2012.4 BETA
I131 Underground production and development miners 19,401 22,367 2,966 15%
I215 Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers 9,054 10,665 1,611 18%
I122 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 20,075 21,332 1,257 6%
I132 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers 23,655 24,862 1,207 5%
H622 Drillers and blasters - Surface mining, quarrying and construction 2,563 3,419 856 33%
J011 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing 9,534 10,330 796 8%
I142 Oil and gas well drilling workers and services operators 11,514 12,045 531 5%
J012 Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 17,205 17,410 205 1%
I121 Supervisors, mining and quarrying 7,139 7,030 (109) (2%)
Total 120,141 129,460 9,319 8%
Every single one of these occupations is growing, nationwide, with the lowest-level occupation in the set (drillers and blasters) growing the fastest at a huge 34% while still earning a respectable average wage of $23.98. Unlike healthcare occupations, though, mining industries are highly regionalized in Canada, so we turned to the GIS tool again to see where this growth is actually happening. Take a look at this map of which Census Divisions are adding jobs in this set of occupations, and which are losing them:
There are some very large Census Divisions showing eye-catching red losses here, but overall this is a very successful picture. No Census Division lost more than 488 jobs from 2010 to 2012, and less than one-third lost jobs to any extent. As expected, big gains were made in the Alberta Census Divisions — Calgary grew the most of anywhere, adding 1,037 jobs for a healthy 11% expansion, and Edmonton added 455 jobs for 9% growth, good for fourth in the country. But Sudbury came in an unexpected second, adding 812 jobs for an eye-popping 33% expansion, and Cochrane trailing in third with a 24% expansion of 533 new jobs.
Finding unexpected data like Sudbury and Cochrane’s growth suggests that we should take a closer look at where the occupations we’re considering are in the most demand, to find out where the need for new training in these fields is needed. We’ll look at some examples in Part 2.
For reference, here’s a table of all the jobs we’ve looked at, ranked by 2010-2012 growth:
NOC-S Description 2010 Jobs 2012 Jobs Change % Change
Source: Employees & Self-Employed - EMSI 2012.4 BETA
B022 Professional occupations in business services to management 119,261 128,477 9,216 8%
C031 Civil engineers 44,594 52,532 7,938 18%
D112 Registered nurses 276,094 283,905 7,811 3%
C032 Mechanical engineers 38,186 44,759 6,573 17%
B011 Financial auditors and accountants 205,611 211,763 6,152 3%
D111 Head nurses and supervisors 19,502 24,913 5,411 28%
I131 Underground production and development miners 19,401 22,367 2,966 15%
E023 Family, marriage and other related counsellors 38,046 40,895 2,849 7%
D011 Specialist physicians 36,616 38,946 2,330 6%
C048 Other professional engineers, n.e.c. 17,273 19,394 2,121 12%
J013 Supervisors, food, beverage and tobacco processing 17,535 19,594 2,059 12%
C034 Chemical engineers 9,460 11,499 2,039 22%
C033 Electrical and electronics engineers 38,367 40,318 1,951 5%
D013 Dentists 18,785 20,728 1,943 10%
B021 Specialists in human resources 73,603 75,521 1,918 3%
I215 Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers 9,054 10,665 1,611 18%
A123 Architecture and science managers 7,824 9,318 1,494 19%
A373 Transportation managers 23,620 25,079 1,459 6%
E031 Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers 26,175 27,564 1,389 5%
I122 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 20,075 21,332 1,257 6%
I132 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers 23,655 24,862 1,207 5%
D021 Optometrists 3,879 5,022 1,143 29%
A014 Senior managers - Health, education, social and community services and membership organizations 7,766 8,750 984 13%
J022 Supervisors, electronics manufacturing 3,670 4,644 974 27%
A371 Construction managers 57,302 58,267 965 2%
H622 Drillers and blasters - Surface mining, quarrying and construction 2,563 3,419 856 33%
J011 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing 9,534 10,330 796 8%
E021 Psychologists 21,724 22,389 665 3%
I142 Oil and gas well drilling workers and services operators 11,514 12,045 531 5%
J026 Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing 18,717 19,215 498 3%
D012 General practitioners and family physicians 46,214 46,695 481 1%
D032 Dietitians and nutritionists 8,737 9,205 468 5%
D223 Dental technologists, technicians and laboratory bench workers 6,493 6,801 308 5%
D023 Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating 4,912 5,200 288 6%
D022 Chiropractors 6,343 6,628 285 4%
E024 Ministers of religion 31,718 31,988 270 1%
J027 Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly 6,356 6,589 233 4%
J012 Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 17,205 17,410 205 1%
J014 Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing 7,647 7,840 193 3%
D014 Veterinarians 11,529 11,580 51 0%
D044 Other professional occupations in therapy and assessment 5,897 5,881 (16) 0%
I121 Supervisors, mining and quarrying 7,139 7,030 (109) (2%)
J023 Supervisors, electrical products manufacturing 2,496 2,356 (140) (6%)
J025 Supervisors, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing 2,150 1,946 (204) (9%)
C015 Other professional occupations in physical sciences 2,673 2,346 (327) (12%)
J015 Supervisors, forest products processing 13,225 12,855 (370) (3%)
J016 Supervisors, textile processing 1,763 1,383 (380) (22%)
E216 Other religious occupations 7,542 7,158 (384) (5%)
D219 Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 5,214 4,678 (536) (10%)
J024 Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing 7,174 6,463 (711) (10%)
B012 Financial and investment analysts 51,401 50,270 (1,131) (2%)
E022 Social workers 61,482 60,223 (1,259) (2%)
D031 Pharmacists 28,178 26,704 (1,474) (5%)
A122 Computer and information systems managers 52,643 49,662 (2,981) (6%)
A121 Engineering managers 23,223 19,057 (4,166) (18%)
Total 1,638,757 1,706,461 67,704 4%
Data and analysis for this post came from Analyst, EMSI’s web-based labour market tool. Follow us on Twitter @desktopecon. Email Fraser Martens if you have any questions or comments, or would like to see further data.
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