Thousands of clients worldwide are already using Analyst, EMSI’s premier web-based labour market data tool. Now, EMSI is pleased to introduce Analyst for Canada. Based on EMSI’s unique and comprehensive set of workforce and demographic data, Analyst for Canada provides community colleges, workforce boards, and anyone with an interest in understanding the dynamics of Canada’s regional economies with a fast, easy way of getting the data-driven answers they need to make informed, objective decisions.
Recently we started looking at the conditions for a list of 55 Canadian occupations, which, according to this report from the CIBC, were facing a shortage of skilled workers. We found that, as a group, almost all of the occupations in the CIBC report were managing to grow at a steady rate, many of them substantially faster than the Canadian workforce as a whole. We also began to break the large set of occupations down into smaller groups of related occupations, like nursing and mining jobs, to get a sense of where the market for workers who do have the necessary skills is the most exciting.
Even a cursory look at the data quickly showed that skilled-labour markets are highly regionalized. To follow up on that post, we used Analyst for Canada to find occupations from the CIBC list that are growing unusually quickly in specific Census Divisions and Census Metropolitan Areas.
As we saw, one of the highest-growth occupations in Canada is the nursing sector, in which we’ve included both registered nurses and nurse supervisor. As of 2012 there were a whopping 283,905 registered nurses (one of the largest single occupations in Canada) and 24,913 more head nurses and supervisors. Between 2010 and 2012, both of these related occupations grew at a rate higher than the average for all occupations, especially head nurses and supervisors, which grew by 28%. Taken as a group, these two occupations grew by 4.5% over those two years.
But those are only national figures; anyone considering training towards a job in this field, or who has training and is deciding where to seek employment, wants to know where the most new jobs are. We used Analyst to look at all the Canadian Census Divisions and Census Metropolitan Areas to find exceptional growth rates. The results were eye-catching. Many local areas, both small and large, experienced much higher than average growth, as the chart below shows.
Compared to the green baseline of national growth for nursing jobs — 4.5%, with relatively flat forecasted development — the other census areas on the chart are quite remarkable. Lethbridge, for example, added more than 600 jobs, a 49% increase over 2010. The Peace River district of northern British Columbia nearly doubled its nursing market, growing by 77.1%. And Edmonton (Alberta Census Division No. 6) added 737 jobs.
While nursing jobs are growing quickly in the western provinces, demand for these workers is plummeting elsewhere. In fact the five most sharply shrinking Census Division that still had over 200 nursing jobs in Canada were all in Quebec. Not places where nurses or nursing training ought to be focussing their efforts.
| Lowest-Ranked Census Divisions | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: Employees & Self-Employed - EMSI 2012.4 BETA | ||||||
| Census Division | 2010 Jobs | 2012 Jobs | Change | % Change | 2010 Location Quotient | 2012 Location Quotient |
| La Valle-de-l'Or (2489) | 342 | 234 | (108) | (32%) | 0.97 | 0.62 |
| Laval (2465) | 2,593 | 1,779 | (814) | (31%) | 0.93 | 0.61 |
| Rouyn-Noranda (2486) | 315 | 219 | (96) | (30%) | 0.89 | 0.57 |
| Abitibi (2488) | 289 | 203 | (86) | (30%) | 1.51 | 1.01 |
| Nord-du-Quebec (2499) | 498 | 400 | (98) | (20%) | 1.49 | 1.18 |
Although many of the occupations we looked at were growing nationwide, there were still some on the decline. Even these, however, are still promising job markets if we look at them at the local level. Financial and investment analysts, for example, were down about 2% nationwide. But many Census Divisions still showed very positive growth, as the table below shows:
Highest-Ranked Census Divisions
Source: Employees & Self-Employed - EMSI 2012.4 BETA
Census Division 2010 Jobs 2012 Jobs Change % Change 2010 Location Quotient 2012 Location Quotient
Montreal (2466) 5,456 7,250 1,794 33% 1.42 1.96
Halifax (1209) 442 727 285 64% 0.63 1.08
Middlesex (3539) 568 773 205 36% 0.78 1.09
Longueuil (2458) 871 1,055 184 21% 1.59 1.99
Division No. 11 (4611) 1,029 1,212 183 18% 0.85 1.04
With a little research, skilled workers in fields that are declining across the nation can clearly still find active, growing job markets. But almost every occupation, even those actively hiring, is divided between areas hiring in droves and other areas shedding workers. Some are more pronounced than others. For example, a closer look at professional occupations in business services to managers (NOC-S B022) shows that while hiring went up by a healthy 8% nationwide, the news was more mixed at the census division level.
High and Low Census Divisions
Source: Employees - EMSI 2012.4 BETA
Census Division 2010 Jobs 2012 Jobs Change % Change 2010 Location Quotient 2012 Location Quotient
Simcoe (3543) 492 715 223 45% 0.85 1.19
Waterloo (3530) 1,019 1,456 437 43% 1.17 1.64
Capital (5917) 450 604 154 34% 0.76 0.97
Division No. 6 (4806) 2,953 3,255 302 10% 1.31 1.36
Ottawa (3506) 3,264 3,586 322 10% 1.89 2.01
Greater Vancouver (5915) 4,458 3,339 (1,119) (25%) 1.21 0.88
Division No. 11 (4711) 269 186 (83) (31%) 0.57 0.38
Gatineau (2481) 388 196 (192) (49%) 1.08 0.53
While Waterloo, Simcoe, and Calgary (Alberta Division No. 6) are doing fine and adding large numbers of jobs, Gatineau lost nearly half of its jobs in only two years, Edmonton (Alberta Division No. 11) is down 31%, and the Vancouver-Fraser Valley region has lost a staggering combined total of 1,194 jobs, a full quarter of the workforce in this occupation.
None of this counteracts the CIBC’s central thesis, which is that, regardless of hiring patterns, the industries which these occupations staff are in need of more skilled labour. What they do show, however, is that there is a real, viable market for Canadian workers who do have the skills those occupations require — especially if those workers are willing to be geographically mobile and go where the jobs are. The CIBC’s report may be troubling news for businesses, but it’s promising for the skilled workers already in the labour pool.
Data and analysis for this post came from Analyst, EMSI’s web-based labour market tool. Follow us on Twitter @desktopecon. Email Fraser Martens if you have any questions or comments, or would like to see further data.
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