Temp Employment Is Dominating Job Growth In The Largest Cities

Earlier this week, we wrote about the fastest-growing employment sector in the U.S. — support activities for metal mining. But the industry that’s added the most total jobs since the recession is temporary help services, a low-paying sector that EMSI estimates has 765,000 more jobs in 2013 than it did at the start of 2009.

The hiring surge in temp help accounts for 15% of all job growth nationally the last four years (not including self-employment), even though the industry makes up 2% of the nation’s workforce. And in some metropolitan areas, the share of job growth that can be credited to the temp sector is much, much higher: 65% in Cincinnati, 51% in Milwaukee, 46% in Kansas City. Even in bigger metros, like Chicago and Philadelphia, the temp sector accounts for more than 40% of new jobs since 2009.

Is it a good thing that job growth in dozens of large cities has been dominated by temp help? The quick answer: probably not. Especially since few of these new temp jobs are turning into full-time employment offers.

Consider this exchange between The Wall Street Journal’s Lauren Weber and ManpowerGroup CEO Jeffrey Joerres:

WSJ: Companies typically staff up with temps during a recovery and convert them to permanent workers as conditions improve. Are you seeing that pattern now?

Mr. Joerres: In good times, 60% to 70% of our people will receive a full-time offer while on assignment. Right now, it’s around 30%, and the tepid economy is driving that. Permanent recruitment is up about 10% on a year-over-year basis in the U.S.

Manpower, an EMSI client, is one of the world’s largest staffing firms. Every day, as the WSJ pointed out, it sends out more than 600,000 temp workers to businesses in all sorts of sectors (up from 450,000 two years ago). And Joerres says only 30% of these workers are getting full-time offers during their temporary gigs. That’s hardly an encouraging sign when you consider the low wages for workers in temporary settings ($33,327 on average annually in the U.S.) and the fact that many firms are still hesitant — or “scared,” as CNN put it in a headline — to add permanent hires.

But here’s perhaps the most important takeaway from our quick research: The best-performing metros since the recession (e.g., Houston, Washington, D.C., San Jose) have the lowest share of new jobs coming from temp help services.

To see where in the U.S. the temp hiring boom has most consumed job growth, we checked the employment picture for the 100 most populous metros using EMSI’s 2013.2 dataset. Only four metros saw temp workforce declines from 2009-2013 (Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, New Orleans, Youngstown, and Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville). And most others saw enormous temp gains — particularly compared to all other industries.

But here’s perhaps the most important takeaway from our quick research: The best-performing metros since the recession (e.g., Houston, Washington, D.C., San Jose) have the lowest share of new jobs coming from temp help services.

Mapping Total Gains

The following map, from EMSI’s mapping tool, shows total temp gains and losses for the largest 100 metros.

Note: EMSI’s 2013 employment numbers are annual average estimates based on historic and projected data from state and federal sources, such as the BLS’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

Chicago has added the most temp jobs since 2009 (an estimated 45,444), and Knoxville, Tenn., has grown at the quickest rate of the top 100 MSAs (137%, or 4,280 new jobs). But Stockton, Calif., is No. 1 in terms of temp job growth dwarfing total job change: the Central Valley metro has added 1,604 jobs in temp help, and just 40 jobs total. That means if we subtracted its temp help gains, Stockton would still have fewer jobs than it did in 2009 — 1,564 fewer (a 1% decrease instead holding steady).

Three other metros are in the same situation as Stockton: Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, Pa. (where temp help growth is 212% of total job change), Dayton (117% of total change), and Memphis (116%).

Meanwhile, Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla., has added 508 jobs since 2009, and 500 of them have been in temp help (98% of job growth). Here are other metros at the top of the list (the full table is below):

• Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. — 66% of new jobs in temp help
• Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. — 65%
• Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, S.C. — 64%
• Lancaster, Pa. — 60%
• Greensboro-High Point, N.C. — 59%
• Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. — 58%
• North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, Fla. — 55%

Metros On The Rebound

On the flip side, the metros that have bounced back quickest from the recession have the smallest shares of new growth coming from temp help services. This includes Houston (8% of total job growth), San Jose (8%), Salt Lake City (6%), Austin (5%), and especially Washington, D.C. (2%). The temp help sector has grown by 11% in D.C. (2,701 new jobs), but the total D.C. economy has added 117,238 jobs.

Here’s the full list of metros. The top performers are at the bottom since we’ve ranked the metros by the highest share of new jobs in temp help.

Metro	2009 Temp Help Jobs	2013 Temp Help Jobs	Temp Help Job Growth	% Change	Total Job Change (2009-2013)	Share of New Jobs in Temp Help	2013 Avg. Earnings Per Temp Job
Source: QCEW Employees & Non-QCEW Employees - EMSI 2013.2 Class of Worker
Stockton, CA	3,366	4,970	1,604	48%	40	4010%	$27,714
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA	4,167	5,477	1,310	31%	617	212%	$21,456
Dayton, OH	4,850	6,899	2,049	42%	1,751	117%	$25,724
Memphis, TN-MS-AR	20,162	27,654	7,492	37%	6,474	116%	$22,777
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL	3,365	3,865	500	15%	508	98%	$26,291
Birmingham-Hoover, AL	5,868	8,553	2,685	46%	4,063	66%	$29,060
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN	15,346	21,150	5,804	38%	8,946	65%	$26,439
Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC	10,626	18,453	7,827	74%	12,160	64%	$29,675
Lancaster, PA	2,741	4,104	1,363	50%	2,253	60%	$25,748
Greensboro-High Point, NC	7,315	10,536	3,221	44%	5,473	59%	$26,786
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT	6,253	8,830	2,577	41%	4,445	58%	$34,889
North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL	1,373	2,417	1,044	76%	1,905	55%	$25,984
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI	15,357	21,707	6,350	41%	12,411	51%	$26,755
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA	6,787	8,219	1,432	21%	2,934	49%	$29,546
Kansas City, MO-KS	13,075	18,946	5,871	45%	12,755	46%	$25,893
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH	13,313	18,622	5,309	40%	11,972	44%	$27,959
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	37,332	45,506	8,174	22%	19,752	41%	$37,281
New Haven-Milford, CT	4,389	6,977	2,588	59%	6,501	40%	$28,918
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI	86,818	132,262	45,444	52%	114,535	40%	$28,355
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY	1,422	1,639	217	15%	570	38%	$33,815
Columbia, SC	4,162	7,124	2,962	71%	7,820	38%	$28,422
Tucson, AZ	2,805	3,975	1,170	42%	3,184	37%	$22,161
Knoxville, TN	3,123	7,403	4,280	137%	13,087	33%	$32,735
Rochester, NY	7,412	9,440	2,028	27%	6,638	31%	$32,809
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC	10,848	12,056	1,208	11%	3,956	31%	$34,975
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA	8,684	11,221	2,537	29%	8,708	29%	$29,517
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT	3,635	5,740	2,105	58%	7,272	29%	$50,350
Jacksonville, FL	9,406	15,339	5,933	63%	21,349	28%	$29,560
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI	9,567	19,704	10,137	106%	37,630	27%	$20,962
Jackson, MS	2,522	4,134	1,612	64%	6,023	27%	$25,055
Madison, WI	3,054	5,856	2,802	92%	10,831	26%	$29,697
St. Louis, MO-IL	12,898	16,930	4,032	31%	16,197	25%	$31,089
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN	17,268	30,051	12,783	74%	51,595	25%	$27,363
Fresno, CA	3,396	5,231	1,835	54%	7,558	24%	$27,618
Tulsa, OK	6,421	8,207	1,786	28%	8,301	22%	$31,683
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA	4,661	7,600	2,939	63%	14,133	21%	$32,717
Richmond, VA	9,391	13,539	4,148	44%	20,323	20%	$39,883
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA	48,612	71,553	22,941	47%	112,415	20%	$34,809
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC	3,192	4,415	1,223	38%	6,118	20%	$29,287
Chattanooga, TN-GA	2,463	4,242	1,779	72%	9,549	19%	$28,863
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA	4,864	6,533	1,669	34%	9,236	18%	$34,928
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	31,095	47,391	16,296	52%	93,548	17%	$31,963
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY	2,758	2,969	211	8%	1,222	17%	$32,487
Boise City-Nampa, ID	4,431	6,563	2,132	48%	12,766	17%	$27,783
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA	83,012	109,987	26,975	32%	162,144	17%	$35,332
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN	13,337	24,917	11,580	87%	71,538	16%	$29,569
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ	5,492	7,244	1,752	32%	10,871	16%	$24,922
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI	27,159	43,172	16,013	59%	107,626	15%	$38,248
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV	9,390	11,388	1,998	21%	13,459	15%	$25,133
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN	11,951	17,254	5,303	44%	37,914	14%	$26,484
Raleigh-Cary, NC	6,941	12,217	5,276	76%	38,167	14%	$46,626
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL	24,046	35,849	11,803	49%	88,981	13%	$34,763
Columbus, OH	19,182	23,792	4,610	24%	38,003	12%	$27,615
Baltimore-Towson, MD	18,204	24,668	6,464	36%	53,472	12%	$37,496
Toledo, OH	4,477	5,845	1,368	31%	11,483	12%	$24,740
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO	15,891	25,731	9,840	62%	83,951	12%	$40,054
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA	4,870	5,842	972	20%	8,399	12%	$33,297
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	59,013	86,759	27,746	47%	240,628	12%	$32,540
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ	24,363	32,990	8,627	35%	76,851	11%	$35,326
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	15,151	19,996	4,845	32%	44,688	11%	$35,463
Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC	3,448	5,715	2,267	66%	21,317	11%	$30,281
Pittsburgh, PA	12,407	15,309	2,902	23%	28,544	10%	$37,352
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC	13,721	19,833	6,112	45%	60,559	10%	$36,987
Modesto, CA	1,789	2,091	302	17%	3,030	10%	$29,818
Springfield, MA	2,680	3,695	1,015	38%	10,271	10%	$31,970
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	15,572	20,243	4,671	30%	50,946	9%	$28,923
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA	86,265	115,897	29,632	34%	324,461	9%	$39,265
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	12,466	18,473	6,007	48%	71,381	8%	$54,756
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH	29,823	39,205	9,382	31%	112,358	8%	$45,261
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX	40,935	59,596	18,661	46%	246,511	8%	$47,116
El Paso, TX	4,584	5,814	1,230	27%	17,519	7%	$23,016
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	24,992	30,922	5,930	24%	86,948	7%	$51,953
Ogden-Clearfield, UT	2,775	3,603	828	30%	12,402	7%	$22,213
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	13,350	17,095	3,745	28%	56,444	7%	$26,360
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA	19,839	23,172	3,333	17%	52,032	6%	$38,122
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY	5,049	5,615	566	11%	9,015	6%	$33,035
Provo-Orem, UT	1,109	2,436	1,327	120%	21,291	6%	$25,801
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL	1,148	1,828	680	59%	11,444	6%	$22,197
Salt Lake City, UT	8,325	11,344	3,019	36%	53,784	6%	$29,760
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	26,446	28,058	1,612	6%	29,205	6%	$23,929
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX	10,071	14,848	4,777	47%	87,056	5%	$33,620
Colorado Springs, CO	3,077	3,722	645	21%	12,499	5%	$34,627
Bakersfield-Delano, CA	3,491	5,017	1,526	44%	31,450	5%	$33,067
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX	2,302	3,005	703	31%	14,653	5%	$21,098
Baton Rouge, LA	4,627	5,104	477	10%	10,664	4%	$46,237
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA	23,156	28,150	4,994	22%	125,134	4%	$57,682
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR	4,817	4,929	112	2%	3,277	3%	$25,272
Oklahoma City, OK	6,642	7,423	781	12%	30,577	3%	$35,785
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	23,672	26,373	2,701	11%	117,238	2%	$55,400
Akron, OH	5,509	5,606	97	2%	6,739	1%	$24,469
Worcester, MA	4,581	4,762	181	4%	12,871	1%	$30,145
Honolulu, HI	2,714	2,866	152	6%	15,269	1%	$29,778

Poorest-Performing Metros

Additionally, eight metros either experienced overall job loss from 2009-2013 or experienced job loss in the temp sector (the real exceptions, as we mentioned above). The worst of the lot is Albuquerque, which has nearly 10,000 fewer total jobs in 2013 than it did in 2009 and only 398 more temp jobs.

Metropolitan Statistical Area Name	2009 Temp Help Jobs	2013 Temp Help Jobs	Job Change	% Change	Total Job Change	2013 Avg. Earnings Per Temp Job
Source: QCEW Employees & Non-QCEW Employees - EMSI 2013.2 Class of Worker
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	19,979	19,977	-2	0%	33,555	$39,358
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA	8,240	7,895	-345	-4%	18,489	$33,831
Albuquerque, NM	3,802	4,200	398	10%	-9,770	$36,331
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA	2,206	1,871	-335	-15%	4,888	$26,971
Syracuse, NY	2,395	2,488	93	4%	-1,215	$24,302
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL	1,649	1,392	-257	-16%	921	$33,361
Wichita, KS	3,038	4,071	1,033	34%	-3,378	$32,041
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA	10,342	20,099	9,757	94%	-3,428	$34,349

Data shown in this post comes from Analyst, EMSI’s web-based labor market data and analysis tool. To look at temp jobs in your region or for more information on EMSI, contact Josh Wright (jwright@economicmodeling.com). Follow us on Twitter @DesktopEcon.