In job growth measured on a per-capita basis, Illinois ranked a meager 37th from 2010 to 2013 in EMSI’s recent analysis. That’s well below Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana — three fellow Great Lake States — and also worse than its neighbor to the North, Wisconsin, which came in at No. 32 for post-recession per-capita new jobs.
What’s going on in Illinois? The state’s recent income tax hike and overall poor financial shape could be a factor. But the Chicago Federal Reserve’s Bill Testa recently wrote that a bigger culprit may be the state’s industry mix.
Illinois has a smaller share of manufacturing jobs — and a higher share of service-oriented jobs — than other Great Lake states that are faring better after the downturn (see our chart). Within manufacturing, Testa noted, Illinois has far fewer automotive industry jobs than Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio, while tending to have more manufacturing jobs that relate food processing and farm, construction, and mining equipment.
To show the direction of some of Illinois’s largest detailed industries, Crain’s Chicago Business analyzed EMSI’s year-by-year industry data, looking back since 2009 and projecting forward through 2018. Crain’s came up with an informative chart that ranks the biggest job gainers and losers from 2014 to 2018 and compares that ranking to how those industries performed from 2009 to 2013.
You might notice that only two manufacturing industries show up on the chart, and both in the biggest losers category. Other plastics product manufacturing is expected to do the best out of the bottom 10 industries, with 2,300 jobs lost from 2014 to 2018, while printing is projected to continue its downward spiral.
Temporary help services, a sector tied to manufacturing, is the runaway leader in recent and projected job growth. Illinois is expected to add more than 21,000 temp jobs from 2014 to 2018 after gaining nearly 54,000 from 2009 to 2013. (Keep in mind Illinois lost 45,000 temp jobs from 2007 to 2009).
It’s encouraging for Illinois that computer systems designs and related services, an important high-tech industry, is projected to keep growing after ranking third with 12,585 jobs added from 2009 to 2013. Another high-paying industry that is projected to see big gains is management consulting services, part of Illinois’s large professional, scientific, and technical services sector.
Easily the most curious industry on the gainers list is education (local government). After dropping 8,700 jobs, a 2.4% decrease from 2009 to 2013, it’s projected to bounce back in a big way, with over 13,000 jobs added. Those are large numbers, but it’s always important to consider the size of industries; education (local government) accounts for 350,000 jobs in Illinois — the most of any detailed industry — and its 4% projected growth rate is small compared to computer systems design (17%), management consulting services (13%), and temporary help services (12%).
For more on EMSI’s employment data — available at the county, MSA, and ZIP code level — or to see data for your region, email Josh Wright. Follow EMSI on Twitter (@DesktopEcon) or check us out on LinkedIn and Facebook.