We see inflation everywhere at the gas
pump at the grocery store on the news.
But how has inflation showing
up in our labor market back in
the saddle I’m Lee Washington.
And thank you for joining me for another
beer with Emsi burning glass today.
I’m drinking Jeremiah Johnson’s
mountain man Scottsdale.
Oh yeah.
Yeah, don’t judge me on the poor.
I was all phone buddy.
Oh yeah.
Let’s look at the numbers.
According to the latest
government statistics prices
for consumers are up 8.3%.
Over the past year for producers.
Inflation is even higher, a full 11%
how’s that impacting the labor market
and lots of ways to start wages rose
on average five and a half percent
over the past year, which is a big.
But it’s not keeping up with
inflation inflection coming.
Alright.
That could be one reason why
personal credit card debt is also
rising and individual savings
are sinking towards record loans.
Rising costs may force.
Many of those of not currently
working back into the labor market.
Our data is already seeing this change.
Remember in our demographic
drought research, we outlined the
Exodus of both the younger workers
and early retirees from the.
Our data now shows that early
retirees, those who are under the
age of 65 are starting to return
to the labor force in big numbers.
And because of the competition for that
talent, they’ll likely find jobs, paying
a higher wage than when they left the
workforce are the tastes like heaven.
Just kidding.
Excellent.
Refreshing Scottsdale.
In fact, our data shows over the
past three months, those workers
who were moving to new jobs in
the workforce have seen a way.
About 35% greater than those
who stayed in their current job.
These higher wages are
also inflation drivers.
If a restaurant that paid workers eight
to $10 an hour is now paying 15 an hour.
They might raise prices
to keep their margins up.
You might be looking at a lot less
value in your value meal, less
swings in your to go order less ice
cream in the carton, soul, and fewer
potato chips in the bags that I buy.
Cool.
Cool.
Cool.
All right.
Thank you.
Rising costs may also be the reason
people are buying less high dollar
durable goods like cars or appliances.
Remember the supply chain crisis
in the boom and trucking jobs.
Our data shows a softening and
logistics job postings as warehouses
are now overstuffed with goods, but
how will this all impact job openings?
Even if there is a pull back from the
11.4 million job openings, our analysts
estimate that there will still be
around 9 million job openings to fill.
That means employers will remain
in a tight race for talent, even
if the economy cools off and they
need the best information possible.
I find the people to fill their needs.
And as the boom and bust cycle, the
pandemic winds down, we expect to
see a more consistent labor market
with less reshuffling of employees.
But that doesn’t mean things get easier
for those trying to hire employees
will have to be more deliberate about
the size and shape of their workforce.
At Emsi burning glass.
We’re helping our customers
understand and position for these
and other talent market shifts.
Does your people strategy need
more of a competitive edge?
If so, let us know how we can help
you maximize your planning for.
I’m Lee.
Thank you for joining me for another
beer with Emsi burning glass.
Cheers.
Hope we didn’t miss last call.
