Wearing the sport coat, doing a little whiskey, a little Highland Park.
It’s a 12 year old.
Let’s do a little bit.
I’m a huge whiskey guy.
The 2020 census data is starting to come out, and the number show that America’s populations growth is slowing down.
What might that mean for the labor market?
We’ve been tracking this dynamic for a while and as we dig into the data, the future becomes a lot more clear.
Today, the U.S. has a very low labor force participation rate and some 7.5 million unfilled jobs.
Super odd, considering the relatively high unemployment we see today.
And we know that COVID has kept many students and employees at home for that last year, but we are finding that the pandemic has not been the primary culprit of the current talent shortfall, just more of an accelerator.
Here’s the gist.
2020 sped up the collision of three huge forces.
One, the mass exodus of the baby boomers.
Two, the lowest labor force participation rate of working age people we’ve seen.
And three, a huge decline in births.
There’s just too few working age people for all the work that needs to be done.
What you need to know is that this is not a temporary situation.
In fact, we are on the front end of a demographic downturn that could fundamentally change labor markets across the globe.
We call this the coming sansdemic.
Whereas pandemic implies all people, sansdemic means without people.
Or, in this case, without enough people.
Consider these points: First, 2020 forced three million baby boomers to retire and many of them aren’t even 65 yet, meaning they have a lot of good working years left.
Many are in senior positions and their knowledge and skills will be really hard to replace.
Second, the labor force participation rate for working age people is at near-historic lows.
And it just doesn’t appear to be rebounding.
While this dynamic is, in large part, driven by the exodus of women from the market, we found another very concerning trend.
Prime age men are steadily leaving the market, not getting married, not working full-time, and living off of their boomer parents or grandparents.
Third, birth rates are crashing and have been below the replacement, which is 2.1, since 1971.
That’s 50 years of not replacing our population.
There just aren’t enough people coming to sustain the labor market as we know it.
How does this impact you?
We believe that businesses, colleges, and local governments should be thinking about this now and starting to prepare for these changes.
At Emsi, our focus is on helping our clients understand the data so you can develop a strong people strategy.
Organizations that build that strategy now will be better suited to whether the coming sansdemic.
To help you understand these changes, we are releasing a big research paper on May 4th.
So, stay tuned and hit up this link on Tuesday.
I didn’t mean to be so depressing.
Thanks for joining us on this “Beer with Emsi”, Whiskey with Emsi.